OpenAI’s recent announcement of an AI-driven solution to the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem—using thousands of agents on an unreleased internal model, followed by Lean formalization—has created a near-even split in trader sentiment around potential retraction. The 50.5% market-implied odds on “No” reflect strong verification via the public proof and repository, which independently confirms finite-time singularity in the forced case, yet balanced by intense scrutiny over credit disputes with mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, allegations of indirect data influence, and OpenAI’s narrowed claim that avoids the full Millennium Prize. Upcoming mathematician reviews, including a Harvard analysis, and any formal challenges to the proof’s scope could quickly shift consensus before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
50% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s recent announcement of an AI-driven solution to the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem—using thousands of agents on an unreleased internal model, followed by Lean formalization—has created a near-even split in trader sentiment around potential retraction. The 50.5% market-implied odds on “No” reflect strong verification via the public proof and repository, which independently confirms finite-time singularity in the forced case, yet balanced by intense scrutiny over credit disputes with mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, allegations of indirect data influence, and OpenAI’s narrowed claim that avoids the full Millennium Prize. Upcoming mathematician reviews, including a Harvard analysis, and any formal challenges to the proof’s scope could quickly shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s recent announcement of an AI-driven solution to the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem—using thousands of agents on an unreleased internal model, followed by Lean formalization—has created a near-even split in trader sentiment around potential retraction. The 50.5% market-implied odds on “No” reflect strong verification via the public proof and repository, which independently confirms finite-time singularity in the forced case, yet balanced by intense scrutiny over credit disputes with mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, allegations of indirect data influence, and OpenAI’s narrowed claim that avoids the full Millennium Prize. Upcoming mathematician reviews, including a Harvard analysis, and any formal challenges to the proof’s scope could quickly shift consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s recent announcement of an AI-driven solution to the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem—using thousands of agents on an unreleased internal model, followed by Lean formalization—has created a near-even split in trader sentiment around potential retraction. The 50.5% market-implied odds on “No” reflect strong verification via the public proof and repository, which independently confirms finite-time singularity in the forced case, yet balanced by intense scrutiny over credit disputes with mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, allegations of indirect data influence, and OpenAI’s narrowed claim that avoids the full Millennium Prize. Upcoming mathematician reviews, including a Harvard analysis, and any formal challenges to the proof’s scope could quickly shift consensus before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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