Zhang Youxia, the former senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, has faced formal investigation since January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, followed by his removal from CMC and National People’s Congress positions in late August 2026. These steps occurred amid Xi Jinping’s broader military anti-corruption campaign targeting senior officers, yet no public trial, conviction, or sentencing has been announced as of mid-September. Chinese authorities have used such probes to consolidate control over the People’s Liberation Army ahead of the 2027 modernization timeline, but the procedural pace of high-level cases often extends beyond initial announcements. Traders assign an 88% probability against imprisonment before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed legal proceedings or timelines that would trigger market resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$165,413 Vol.
$165,413 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$165,413 Vol.
$165,413 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Zhang Youxia, the former senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, has faced formal investigation since January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, followed by his removal from CMC and National People’s Congress positions in late August 2026. These steps occurred amid Xi Jinping’s broader military anti-corruption campaign targeting senior officers, yet no public trial, conviction, or sentencing has been announced as of mid-September. Chinese authorities have used such probes to consolidate control over the People’s Liberation Army ahead of the 2027 modernization timeline, but the procedural pace of high-level cases often extends beyond initial announcements. Traders assign an 88% probability against imprisonment before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed legal proceedings or timelines that would trigger market resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volume
$165,413End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Zhang Youxia, the former senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, has faced formal investigation since January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, followed by his removal from CMC and National People’s Congress positions in late August 2026. These steps occurred amid Xi Jinping’s broader military anti-corruption campaign targeting senior officers, yet no public trial, conviction, or sentencing has been announced as of mid-September. Chinese authorities have used such probes to consolidate control over the People’s Liberation Army ahead of the 2027 modernization timeline, but the procedural pace of high-level cases often extends beyond initial announcements. Traders assign an 88% probability against imprisonment before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed legal proceedings or timelines that would trigger market resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chinese General Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$165,413End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zhang Youxia, the former senior vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, has faced formal investigation since January 2026 for suspected serious violations of discipline and law, followed by his removal from CMC and National People’s Congress positions in late August 2026. These steps occurred amid Xi Jinping’s broader military anti-corruption campaign targeting senior officers, yet no public trial, conviction, or sentencing has been announced as of mid-September. Chinese authorities have used such probes to consolidate control over the People’s Liberation Army ahead of the 2027 modernization timeline, but the procedural pace of high-level cases often extends beyond initial announcements. Traders assign an 88% probability against imprisonment before 2027, reflecting the absence of confirmed legal proceedings or timelines that would trigger market resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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