Hu Jintao, now in his mid-80s, has maintained an extremely low public profile since his final confirmed appearance at Jiang Zemin’s December 2022 funeral, with no verified sightings in subsequent years amid reports of frailty and restricted elder involvement under current leadership structures. Chinese political norms often limit visibility for retired senior figures, particularly those from prior factions, while unverified rumors of later appearances have not produced photographic or official confirmation. These patterns, combined with his age and historical seclusion, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated “No” probability, as any event by the end of 2026 would require a notable departure from established practice. Scheduled milestones such as party plenums offer limited windows for potential shifts but have not altered the trajectory to date.