Christopher Luxon remains New Zealand’s prime minister in a National-led coalition despite sustained weak polling for his party and personal approval ratings through early 2026. He survived an April caucus confidence motion, and no subsequent formal challenge or resignation signals have emerged by mid-June. Coalition dynamics with ACT and NZ First have produced occasional friction but no decisive pressure for immediate change ahead of the November general election. Traders therefore assign high probability that Luxon stays in office through September 30, viewing any earlier exit as unlikely absent a sharp deterioration or coordinated internal move that has not yet materialized.