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Politics·Mexico

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

icon for Guerrero Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

Manuel Añorve Baños 38%

Yesenia Galarza Castro 37%

Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos 31%

Héctor Astudillo Flores 29%

Polymarket
NEW

Manuel Añorve Baños 38%

Yesenia Galarza Castro 37%

Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos 31%

Héctor Astudillo Flores 29%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Manuel Añorve Baños

Manuel Añorve Baños

$75 Vol.

38%

icon for Yesenia Galarza Castro

Yesenia Galarza Castro

$75 Vol.

37%

icon for Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos

Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos

$75 Vol.

31%

icon for Héctor Astudillo Flores

Héctor Astudillo Flores

$75 Vol.

29%

icon for Beatriz Mojica Morga

Beatriz Mojica Morga

$75 Vol.

28%

icon for Genaro Vázquez Flores

Genaro Vázquez Flores

$75 Vol.

28%

icon for Esthela Damián Peralta

Esthela Damián Peralta

$75 Vol.

25%

icon for Mario Moreno Arcos

Mario Moreno Arcos

$75 Vol.

19%

icon for Javier Saldaña Almazán

Javier Saldaña Almazán

$75 Vol.

19%

icon for Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez

Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez

$95 Vol.

17%

icon for Abelina López Rodríguez

Abelina López Rodríguez

$95 Vol.

14%

icon for Rogelio Ortega Martínez

Rogelio Ortega Martínez

$95 Vol.

10%

icon for Rubén Cayetano García

Rubén Cayetano García

$75 Vol.

7%

icon for Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña

Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña

$75 Vol.

7%

icon for Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz

Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz

$80 Vol.

7%

icon for Julián López Galeana

Julián López Galeana

$75 Vol.

7%

icon for Eloy Salmerón Díaz

Eloy Salmerón Díaz

$75 Vol.

6%

icon for Alberto López Rosas

Alberto López Rosas

$75 Vol.

5%

icon for Iván Hernández Díaz

Iván Hernández Díaz

$75 Vol.

5%

icon for Gustavo Alarcón Herrera

Gustavo Alarcón Herrera

$75 Vol.

17%

icon for Guadalupe Eguiluz

Guadalupe Eguiluz

$80 Vol.

15%

icon for Félix Salgado Macedonio

Félix Salgado Macedonio

$76 Vol.

35%

icon for Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros

Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros

$75 Vol.

38%

icon for Alejandro Bravo Abarca

Alejandro Bravo Abarca

$80 Vol.

38%

icon for Erika Lorena Lührs

Erika Lorena Lührs

$95 Vol.

35%

icon for Evodio Velázquez Aguirre

Evodio Velázquez Aguirre

$75 Vol.

28%

icon for Carlos Reyes Torres

Carlos Reyes Torres

$98 Vol.

34%

icon for Karen Castrejón Trujillo

Karen Castrejón Trujillo

$75 Vol.

39%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The early stage of Mexico’s 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial contest keeps trader consensus tight, with no candidate exceeding 36 percent implied probability amid a fragmented field of Morena precandidates and opposition figures. Félix Salgado Macedonio’s decision to forgo a run has redistributed support across names such as Yesenia Galarza Castro, Héctor Astudillo Flores, and Alejandro Bravo Abarca, while recent internal Morena surveys and party-militant statements underscore ongoing uncertainty over the eventual nominee. Traders price the outcome near even odds because primary selection processes, coalition negotiations, and the first statewide polls remain months away, leaving ample room for shifts from endorsements, scandals, or turnout patterns in key regions.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$2,217
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The early stage of Mexico’s 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial contest keeps trader consensus tight, with no candidate exceeding 36 percent implied probability amid a fragmented field of Morena precandidates and opposition figures. Félix Salgado Macedonio’s decision to forgo a run has redistributed support across names such as Yesenia Galarza Castro, Héctor Astudillo Flores, and Alejandro Bravo Abarca, while recent internal Morena surveys and party-militant statements underscore ongoing uncertainty over the eventual nominee. Traders price the outcome near even odds because primary selection processes, coalition negotiations, and the first statewide polls remain months away, leaving ample room for shifts from endorsements, scandals, or turnout patterns in key regions.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$2,217
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Guerrero on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Guerrero Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Castrejón Trujillo" at 39%, followed by "Manuel Añorve Baños" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Guerrero Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Guerrero Governor Election Winner," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Guerrero Governor Election Winner" is "Karen Castrejón Trujillo" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Manuel Añorve Baños" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Guerrero Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.