Traders assign a 96.5% probability to "No" on Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any public statements, cabinet signals, or congressional actions indicating an early exit from the presidency. Trump continues to discuss his term's completion and post-White House plans while engaging in midterm preparations, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents rarely resign absent acute pressure such as sustained impeachment proceedings or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Recent speculation from opponents about health concerns or electoral losses has not produced verifiable developments to shift consensus pricing. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a sudden health crisis, major scandal prompting bipartisan removal efforts, or decisive midterm results creating institutional pressure for departure before the deadline.