Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability for no change in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while CPI increased 3.3% year-over-year and PCE held at 2.8%, underscoring sticky price growth amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict that have delayed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond. March FOMC minutes reinforced this steady stance with an 11-1 vote to hold rates. Realistic challenges include surprise dovish guidance from Chair Powell or softer-than-expected April data prints ahead of resolution, though current trader consensus deems these low-probability tail risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
¿Decisión de la Fed en abril?
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 99.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$162,592,710 Vol.
$162,592,710 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
100%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios 99.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más <1%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$162,592,710 Vol.
$162,592,710 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$55,677,848 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$33,284,982 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Sin cambios
$35,200,354 Vol.
100%
aumento de 25 puntos básicos o más
$38,430,570 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability for no change in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while CPI increased 3.3% year-over-year and PCE held at 2.8%, underscoring sticky price growth amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict that have delayed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond. March FOMC minutes reinforced this steady stance with an 11-1 vote to hold rates. Realistic challenges include surprise dovish guidance from Chair Powell or softer-than-expected April data prints ahead of resolution, though current trader consensus deems these low-probability tail risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$162,592,710Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability for no change in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while CPI increased 3.3% year-over-year and PCE held at 2.8%, underscoring sticky price growth amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict that have delayed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond. March FOMC minutes reinforced this steady stance with an 11-1 vote to hold rates. Realistic challenges include surprise dovish guidance from Chair Powell or softer-than-expected April data prints ahead of resolution, though current trader consensus deems these low-probability tail risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$162,592,710Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.7% implied probability for no change in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and persistent inflation pressures. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%, while CPI increased 3.3% year-over-year and PCE held at 2.8%, underscoring sticky price growth amid geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict that have delayed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 or beyond. March FOMC minutes reinforced this steady stance with an 11-1 vote to hold rates. Realistic challenges include surprise dovish guidance from Chair Powell or softer-than-expected April data prints ahead of resolution, though current trader consensus deems these low-probability tail risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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