Mexican security forces have conducted targeted operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a Jalisco raid that triggered subsequent unrest and blockades. April saw the arrest of high-ranking CJNG commander Audias "El Jardinero" Flores without resistance, alongside his financial operator. Additional enforcement actions have yielded regional Sinaloa Cartel figures through extraditions to the United States and domestic detentions on drug and narco-terrorism charges. Ongoing bilateral efforts, including U.S. sanctions on trafficking networks and Mexican military sweeps, continue to shape the environment for further leadership disruptions before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?
¿Qué líderes de cárteles serán arrestados en 2026?
$143,082 Vol.
28 feb 2026
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia González
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
47%
$143,082 Vol.
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
$5,906 Vol.
62%
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
$5,848 Vol.
42%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$60,997 Vol.
49%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán
$4,874 Vol.
34%
Juan Carlos Valencia González
$58,651 Vol.
24%
Juan Reyes Mejía González
$200 Vol.
49%
Juan Pablo Ledezma
$658 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces have conducted targeted operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a Jalisco raid that triggered subsequent unrest and blockades. April saw the arrest of high-ranking CJNG commander Audias "El Jardinero" Flores without resistance, alongside his financial operator. Additional enforcement actions have yielded regional Sinaloa Cartel figures through extraditions to the United States and domestic detentions on drug and narco-terrorism charges. Ongoing bilateral efforts, including U.S. sanctions on trafficking networks and Mexican military sweeps, continue to shape the environment for further leadership disruptions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
Volumen
$143,082Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces have conducted targeted operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a Jalisco raid that triggered subsequent unrest and blockades. April saw the arrest of high-ranking CJNG commander Audias "El Jardinero" Flores without resistance, alongside his financial operator. Additional enforcement actions have yielded regional Sinaloa Cartel figures through extraditions to the United States and domestic detentions on drug and narco-terrorism charges. Ongoing bilateral efforts, including U.S. sanctions on trafficking networks and Mexican military sweeps, continue to shape the environment for further leadership disruptions before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$143,082Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican security forces have conducted targeted operations against major cartels in 2026, including the February killing of CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes during a Jalisco raid that triggered subsequent unrest and blockades. April saw the arrest of high-ranking CJNG commander Audias "El Jardinero" Flores without resistance, alongside his financial operator. Additional enforcement actions have yielded regional Sinaloa Cartel figures through extraditions to the United States and domestic detentions on drug and narco-terrorism charges. Ongoing bilateral efforts, including U.S. sanctions on trafficking networks and Mexican military sweeps, continue to shape the environment for further leadership disruptions before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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