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icon for ¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?

¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?

icon for ¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?

¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?

Sí

31% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

31% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent high-end auction results, including the $181 million Jackson Pollock sale in May 2026, demonstrate that nine-figure transactions remain achievable, yet trader consensus favors “No” at 68% implied probability because no comparable guaranteed trophy lots have been announced for the critical November New York and Paris evening sales.** The market has concentrated gains among a narrow group of historically validated artists, with momentum driven by estate collections rather than broad demand; while the Art Basel/UBS report notes 2025 recovery and optimism heading into 2026, high-value lots above $10 million still require exceptional provenance and timing that has not materialized for the final months of the year. Upcoming auctions could shift sentiment if a major consignment surfaces, but current positioning reflects the unpredictability of last-minute supply and the selective nature of buyer participation at the very top end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$1,333
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent high-end auction results, including the $181 million Jackson Pollock sale in May 2026, demonstrate that nine-figure transactions remain achievable, yet trader consensus favors “No” at 68% implied probability because no comparable guaranteed trophy lots have been announced for the critical November New York and Paris evening sales.** The market has concentrated gains among a narrow group of historically validated artists, with momentum driven by estate collections rather than broad demand; while the Art Basel/UBS report notes 2025 recovery and optimism heading into 2026, high-value lots above $10 million still require exceptional provenance and timing that has not materialized for the final months of the year. Upcoming auctions could shift sentiment if a major consignment surfaces, but current positioning reflects the unpredictability of last-minute supply and the selective nature of buyer participation at the very top end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$1,333
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Se venderá una obra de arte por 150 millones de dólares antes del 31 de diciembre?" con 33%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 33¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jun 3, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?" es "¿Se venderá una obra de arte por 150 millones de dólares antes del 31 de diciembre?" con 33%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 33% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Se venderá una obra de arte por $ 150 millones antes del 31 de diciembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.