**Iran qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by topping its AFC third-round group with a 2-2 draw against Uzbekistan on 25 March 2025, securing its fourth consecutive finals appearance and seventh overall.** FIFA President Gianni Infantino has repeatedly affirmed that the team will compete as scheduled in Group G, with all three group-stage matches in the United States (Los Angeles and Seattle). Geopolitical tensions, including recent regional conflict and U.S. visa/security concerns, prompted Iran to relocate its training base to Tijuana, Mexico, with FIFA approval; the squad is now commuting across the border for fixtures. Iranian football officials and the sports minister issued temporary statements questioning participation early in the crisis, but these were overridden by confirmed qualification status, logistical arrangements, and FIFA’s binding commitment. Traders assign near-certain probability to participation because no formal withdrawal has occurred, the tournament window is active, and historical precedent shows federations rarely forfeit after securing a berth. Late disruptions remain theoretically possible through sudden escalation or policy reversal, yet current evidence—ongoing preparation, scheduled matches, and governing-body statements—anchors the overwhelming consensus reflected in pricing.