Fireblocks, MetaMask, Robinhood launch Open Transaction Layer (OTL)

June 30 dips to 2%3%

MetaMask, Fireblocks, and Robinhood announced the Open Transaction Layer (OTL), an open protocol stack for coordinating on-chain financial transactions, expanding MetaMask's financial services ecosystem.

Market speculation peaks on potential MetaMask MASK token launch timing

December 31, 2026 rises to 33%2%

Market prices peaked around mid-May 2026 reflecting speculation on the MASK token launch timing, with some forecasts pointing to Q3-Q4 2026 aligned with a possible ConsenSys IPO. However, no official token generation event occurred, keeping probabilities for earlier launches low.

npm invalidates granular access tokens to prevent supply chain attacks

December 31, 2026 dips to 31%3%

Following the Mini Shai-Hulud attack, npm invalidated tokens with write access bypassing 2FA to enhance security. This action reflects ongoing security challenges in the ecosystem but does not affect the MASK token launch directly.

Security alert: Mini Shai-Hulud worm poisons hundreds of npm and PyPI packages

December 31, 2026 rises to 44%4%

A major supply chain attack affected npm and PyPI packages, prompting MetaMask and security teams to invalidate tokens and enhance protections. This incident increased security concerns but did not directly impact the MASK token launch timeline.

MetaMask Rewards Returns with Season 2 and New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%

MetaMask relaunched its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, reviving long-term speculation for a future MASK token allocation.

MetaMask Relaunches Rewards Program with New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%9%

MetaMask announced the return of the Rewards program with trading challenges and partner benefits, but without any concrete native token generation event details, keeping near-term launch odds low.

MetaMask Rewards Relaunches with New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 41%8%

MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and partner benefits, which briefly renewed speculative interest in future token allocations.

MetaMask Rewards program relaunches with new perks and token allocations

December 31, 2026 dips to 31%4%

MetaMask Rewards returned with trading challenges, airdrops, and a new Benefits tab, surfacing token allocations based on wallet holdings. This continued the buildup toward a full $MASK token launch but did not confirm a fully tradable token yet, maintaining market uncertainty.

MetaMask Rewards Returns with New Benefits Tab

December 31, 2026 jumps to 40%6%

MetaMask announced the return of its Rewards program with trading challenges and a new Benefits tab, but without any concrete timeline for a native token launch.

MetaMask product update adds multichain support, still no token launch date

June 30 drops to 2%7%

MetaMask released a product‑update on April 23, 2026 highlighting new multichain features but giving no token‑related timeline. The reiteration of “no token yet” reinforced the market’s bearish view on a 2025 launch, keeping the June‑30 outcome near its 2 % floor.

SocGen-FORGE launches USD CoinVertible stablecoin on MetaMask

Societe Generale-FORGE integrated its USD CoinVertible (USDCV) stablecoin into MetaMask, adding a circulating token to the wallet ecosystem. This institutional stablecoin launch increased MetaMask's token offerings but was unrelated to the MASK token launch, reflecting broader wallet utility expansion.

MetaMask Card goes live in the US, signaling broader product rollout

December 31, 2026 jumps to 57%12%

MetaMask announced the general availability of its Card in the US on March 17, 2026. While unrelated to the token itself, the news briefly revived optimism about the ecosystem’s momentum, nudging the Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome up to a short‑term high of 57 % before reverting.

MetaMask MASK token airdrop goes live for eligible wallets

December 31, 2026 surges to 45%15%

MetaMask officially launched the $MASK token airdrop for eligible wallet holders, aiming to decentralize governance. This event marked the first public distribution of the native token, though the token was not yet broadly tradable, impacting market expectations.

MetaMask Closes Season 1 Claim Window

December 31, 2026 drops to 31%5%

MetaMask officially closed the claim window for Season 1 rewards, confirming no native token was generated during this cycle and shifting expectations further out.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Claim Window Closes

September 30 drops to 22%12%

The official closing of the Season 1 claim window and the transition to a waiting period for Season 2 solidified expectations that a token launch would not occur in the first half of 2026.

MetaMask Launches Self-Custodial Debit Card in the US

December 31, 2026 dips to 36%1%

MetaMask announced the general availability of the MetaMask Card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus toward product utility rather than token generation.

Phishing Scams Impersonate MetaMask Token Launch and Airdrop

December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%

Malicious sites claiming a MetaMask token launch was live caused confusion and volatility in prediction markets as users navigated fake claim portals.

MetaMask roadmap update pushes token launch to Q2 2026

December 31, 2026 plunges to 31%19%

On February 9, 2026 MetaMask posted an update on its roadmap, confirming that the native token would not be released before the end of Q2 2026. The clarification pushed the market’s Yes probability for the December‑2026 outcome down to the low‑30 % range and accelerated the decline toward the June‑30 outcome.

MetaMask Announces General Availability of MetaMask Card in the US

December 31, 2026 plunges to 19%31%

MetaMask announced the general availability of its self-custodial debit card in the US in partnership with Mastercard, shifting focus to product utility over token launch.

MetaMask Integrates Ondo Finance to Offer Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs

December 31, 2026 drops to 37%13%

MetaMask expanded its wallet features to support over 200 tokenized U.S. securities via Ondo Global Markets, shifting focus toward real-world asset integrations.

No official MetaMask token generation event or public token launch by early 2026

Despite ongoing speculation and community anticipation, no official token generation event or publicly tradable MetaMask token was launched by early 2026, leading to a steady decline in market odds across all resolution dates.

Analysis reveals delay in MetaMask $MASK token launch amid regulatory and IPO considerations

December 31, 2026 dips to 30%3%

Despite earlier confirmations, no $MASK token launch occurred by early 2026. Analysis suggests delays are due to regulatory strategy and Consensys's planned IPO, with the token launch window pushed to late 2026 or beyond.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Ends with LINEA Payouts and No Token Launch

June 30 plunges to 12%20%

Season 1 of the Rewards program concluded on January 23, 2026, distributing LINEA tokens instead of a native MetaMask token. The lack of immediate TGE signals caused a sharp drop in the probability of a June launch.

MetaMask CEO last mentions token launch; no new TGE signals emerge

September 30 drops to 65%12%

The last public mention by ConsenSys CEO regarding MetaMask token launch occurred in October 2025, with no new official Token Generation Event signals by January 2026. This absence of concrete launch developments led to further decline in market probabilities.

MetaMask ends Rewards Season 1 without announcing token launch

June 30 plunges to 13%65%

MetaMask posted on X that Season 1 of the Rewards program had ended, noting that the $30 M prize pool was distributed in LINEA tokens. The lack of a token‑generation event (TGE) after the season’s close dampened expectations, causing the Yes probability for the June‑30 outcome to fall from 78 % (early Jan) to 13 % by late January.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 ends, claim window closes without $MASK token launch

September 30 plunges to 34%37%

The first season of the MetaMask Rewards program ended, distributing $LINEA tokens but no $MASK token. The claim portal redirected to MetaMask's homepage, and no token generation event occurred, leading to a decline in market probabilities for a 2025 or early 2026 launch.

MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support

September 30 jumps to 80%9%

MetaMask expanded its multichain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to trade BTC directly and earn reward points, further fueling ecosystem activity.

MetaMask launches native Bitcoin support expanding multichain capabilities

December 31, 2026 plunges to 35%15%

MetaMask added native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly in the wallet. This product expansion enhanced MetaMask’s ecosystem but did not include a native token launch, contributing to market uncertainty and declining token launch odds.

MetaMask adds native Bitcoin support, expanding wallet capabilities

December 31, 2026 drops to 38%12%

MetaMask officially launched native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold, send, receive, and trade BTC directly in the app. This expansion of wallet features was part of MetaMask's broader ecosystem growth but did not include a $MASK token launch, influencing market sentiment.

MetaMask Launches Native Bitcoin Support to Expand Beyond Ethereum

June 30 jumps to 63%7%

MetaMask introduced native Bitcoin support, allowing users to hold and trade BTC directly. Swapping BTC earned users reward points, which was seen as another step toward a native token launch.

MetaMask Rolls Out Native Bitcoin Support and Integrates Rewards Points

September 30 jumps to 77%6%

MetaMask expanded its multi-chain capabilities by adding native support for Bitcoin, allowing users to earn MetaMask Rewards points for swapping into BTC. This product expansion initially kept hopes alive for a near-term token launch.

Polymarket Volume Surges on MetaMask Token Launch Speculation

September 30 surges to 90%39%

Speculation around the MASK token reached a peak in early November following the registration of claim domains and the launch of the Rewards program, driving up the odds of a token launch.

MetaMask Rewards Season 1 Launches Fueling MASK Token Speculation

June 30 surges to 78%28%

The launch of MetaMask Rewards Season 1 and the discovery of a password-protected claim domain triggered a sharp rise in prediction market odds for a near-term token launch.