Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, marked by intensified missile and drone strikes on infrastructure through mid-September 2026 and Putin’s explicit warning at the BRICS summit that European troop deployments would constitute direct conflict with Russia, continues to absorb Moscow’s military and economic resources. Ukrainian long-range strikes deep into Russian territory and counteroffensives have further strained Russian forces, while NATO deterrence signals, including U.S. warnings against actions targeting Baltic states, reinforce barriers to new aggression. With Russian leadership focused on incremental Donbas gains and domestic political consolidation ahead of State Duma elections, traders assess limited capacity or incentive for invading additional countries before year-end. Late escalations or shifts in Western support remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus.