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icon for ¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

icon for ¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?

7% probabilidad
Polymarket

$461,192 Vol.

7% probabilidad
Polymarket

$461,192 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s military remains heavily committed to its grinding campaign in Ukraine, where advances have slowed to a near standstill amid high casualties, Ukrainian counteractions, and deep strikes on Russian infrastructure. Traders see little capacity or incentive for Moscow to open a new conventional front before year-end, given personnel strains, economic pressures from sanctions, and the absence of visible troop concentrations or mobilization signals toward neighbors such as NATO members or Moldova. Recent diplomatic contacts with U.S. envoys and Putin’s public denials of aggressive intent toward Europe reinforce the view that Russia’s priority stays on consolidating Donbas gains rather than risking a broader conflict. While hybrid provocations and limited incidents continue, the consensus reflected in 93.5% odds for “No” rests on these structural constraints and lack of preparatory indicators.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$461,192
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s military remains heavily committed to its grinding campaign in Ukraine, where advances have slowed to a near standstill amid high casualties, Ukrainian counteractions, and deep strikes on Russian infrastructure. Traders see little capacity or incentive for Moscow to open a new conventional front before year-end, given personnel strains, economic pressures from sanctions, and the absence of visible troop concentrations or mobilization signals toward neighbors such as NATO members or Moldova. Recent diplomatic contacts with U.S. envoys and Putin’s public denials of aggressive intent toward Europe reinforce the view that Russia’s priority stays on consolidating Donbas gains rather than risking a broader conflict. While hybrid provocations and limited incidents continue, the consensus reflected in 93.5% odds for “No” rests on these structural constraints and lack of preparatory indicators.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$461,192
Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027
Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" ha generado $461.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 19, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" es "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.