Russia’s military remains heavily committed to its grinding campaign in Ukraine, where advances have slowed to a near standstill amid high casualties, Ukrainian counteractions, and deep strikes on Russian infrastructure. Traders see little capacity or incentive for Moscow to open a new conventional front before year-end, given personnel strains, economic pressures from sanctions, and the absence of visible troop concentrations or mobilization signals toward neighbors such as NATO members or Moldova. Recent diplomatic contacts with U.S. envoys and Putin’s public denials of aggressive intent toward Europe reinforce the view that Russia’s priority stays on consolidating Donbas gains rather than risking a broader conflict. While hybrid provocations and limited incidents continue, the consensus reflected in 93.5% odds for “No” rests on these structural constraints and lack of preparatory indicators.