Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$54,749,661 Vol.
$54,749,661 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$54,749,661 Vol.
$54,749,661 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Volumen
$54,749,661Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$54,749,661Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic initiatives and limited U.S. military posture explain the 79.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. Following Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that began in February 2026 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a June memorandum of understanding sought to formalize an end to major hostilities within 60 days, though July attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted renewed but contained U.S. strikes. President Trump stated the exchanges would not produce long-term military action, while mediators continue seeking off-ramps amid concerns over escalation costs, regional instability, and global energy impacts. With only months remaining until the resolution date and no confirmed ground operation plans, the implied probability aligns with the emphasis on diplomacy over territorial seizure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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