**US-Iran tensions have centered on airstrikes, missile exchanges, and naval actions rather than ground operations.** A joint US-Israel campaign launched in late February 2026 under “Operation Epic Fury” targeted Iranian leadership, air defenses, and missile sites, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering Iranian retaliation. The fighting produced a ceasefire in April, a June memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear talks, and further diplomatic efforts in July and early August mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. President Trump has repeatedly ordered pauses on new strikes while negotiators pursue de-escalation. **Trader pricing of “No” at 79.5% reflects the absence of any US ground-force mobilization or territorial seizure plans.** US officials and analysts have consistently described ground invasion as logistically prohibitive in Iran’s terrain and population, with operations limited to air and sea power plus special forces for targeted missions. Recent agreements and public statements emphasize diplomacy, sanctions relief discussions, and conflict termination within the 2026 window, leaving little time or apparent intent for a full-scale invasion before the market resolves at year-end.