Recent resumption of US-Iran shuttle talks at the UN General Assembly on September 23 has reinforced trader expectations against a ground invasion before 2027. Following the February 2026 onset of US and Israeli strikes, a short-lived June memorandum of understanding, and subsequent limited exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, both sides have pursued negotiations alongside sanctions and targeted operations rather than committing US forces to Iranian territory. High projected costs, munitions constraints, and risks of prolonged attrition have kept ground options off the table despite earlier planning discussions. Ongoing diplomatic momentum and preference for economic and air-naval pressure continue to shape the 86.5% implied probability against invasion.