US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iranian diplomatic outreach through Oman, Qatar, and Russia have sustained channels for de-escalation into mid-2026, reducing immediate invasion pressure despite periodic tensions. Recent July statements from President Trump emphasized retaliation for attacks on US personnel and declared prior peace efforts concluded, yet these align with targeted pressure on ballistic missiles and enrichment rather than ground operations to seize territory. Analysts highlight geographic barriers, high troop risks, and historical patterns favoring airstrikes or sanctions over full-scale invasion, consistent with trader pricing that places only about 24% implied probability on a US offensive establishing control by December 31, 2026. No verified military movements signal such a shift in the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$51,549,062 Vol.
$51,549,062 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$51,549,062 Vol.
$51,549,062 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iranian diplomatic outreach through Oman, Qatar, and Russia have sustained channels for de-escalation into mid-2026, reducing immediate invasion pressure despite periodic tensions. Recent July statements from President Trump emphasized retaliation for attacks on US personnel and declared prior peace efforts concluded, yet these align with targeted pressure on ballistic missiles and enrichment rather than ground operations to seize territory. Analysts highlight geographic barriers, high troop risks, and historical patterns favoring airstrikes or sanctions over full-scale invasion, consistent with trader pricing that places only about 24% implied probability on a US offensive establishing control by December 31, 2026. No verified military movements signal such a shift in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Volumen
$51,549,062Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iranian diplomatic outreach through Oman, Qatar, and Russia have sustained channels for de-escalation into mid-2026, reducing immediate invasion pressure despite periodic tensions. Recent July statements from President Trump emphasized retaliation for attacks on US personnel and declared prior peace efforts concluded, yet these align with targeted pressure on ballistic missiles and enrichment rather than ground operations to seize territory. Analysts highlight geographic barriers, high troop risks, and historical patterns favoring airstrikes or sanctions over full-scale invasion, consistent with trader pricing that places only about 24% implied probability on a US offensive establishing control by December 31, 2026. No verified military movements signal such a shift in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$51,549,062Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Iranian diplomatic outreach through Oman, Qatar, and Russia have sustained channels for de-escalation into mid-2026, reducing immediate invasion pressure despite periodic tensions. Recent July statements from President Trump emphasized retaliation for attacks on US personnel and declared prior peace efforts concluded, yet these align with targeted pressure on ballistic missiles and enrichment rather than ground operations to seize territory. Analysts highlight geographic barriers, high troop risks, and historical patterns favoring airstrikes or sanctions over full-scale invasion, consistent with trader pricing that places only about 24% implied probability on a US offensive establishing control by December 31, 2026. No verified military movements signal such a shift in the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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