Skip to main content
icon for Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

icon for Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Ousmane Dembélé 22.7%

Harry Kane 18.1%

Declan Rice 11.2%

Kylian Mbappé 10%

Polymarket

$3,186,090 Vol.

Ousmane Dembélé 22.7%

Harry Kane 18.1%

Declan Rice 11.2%

Kylian Mbappé 10%

Polymarket

$3,186,090 Vol.

Ousmane Dembélé

$386,315 Vol.

23%

Harry Kane

$707,129 Vol.

18%

Declan Rice

$43,433 Vol.

11%

Kylian Mbappé

$123,310 Vol.

10%

Lamine Yamal

$75,584 Vol.

9%

Vitinha

$46,659 Vol.

8%

Michael Olise

$75,247 Vol.

7%

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

$45,385 Vol.

4%

Cristiano Ronaldo

$39,268 Vol.

2%

Erling Haaland

$257,917 Vol.

1%

Vinícius Júnior

$465,781 Vol.

1%

Pedri

$275,288 Vol.

1%

Bruno Fernandes

$30,290 Vol.

1%

Achraf Hakimi

$22,667 Vol.

1%

Raphinha

$26,622 Vol.

1%

Desire Doue

$23,793 Vol.

1%

Julian Alvarez

$24,375 Vol.

1%

Lautaro Martinez

$19,886 Vol.

<1%

Luis Diaz

$35,886 Vol.

<1%

Federico Valverde

$24,252 Vol.

<1%

Jude Bellingham

$210,659 Vol.

<1%

Cole Palmer

$60,714 Vol.

<1%

Mohamed Salah

$139,389 Vol.

<1%

Dominik Szoboszlai

$26,238 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Ousmane Dembélé tops trader consensus at 23% implied probability for the 2026 Ballon d'Or following PSG's thrilling Champions League semifinal victory over Bayern Munich, where his dribbling and chance creation propelled them to the final amid Ligue 1 title success. Harry Kane's record 50+ Bundesliga goals and Bayern's domestic double keep him nipping at 18%, but their CL exit tempers momentum. Declan Rice's midfield dominance has Arsenal in the UCL final and Premier League contention, surging him to 11%, while Kylian Mbappé's 40-goal La Liga haul at Real Madrid and Lamine Yamal's Barcelona assists hold steady at 9-10%. The bunched top tier reflects no decisive standout, with the Champions League final and 2026 World Cup qualifiers poised to shift dynamics in this fiercely competitive race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$3,186,090
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Ousmane Dembélé tops trader consensus at 23% implied probability for the 2026 Ballon d'Or following PSG's thrilling Champions League semifinal victory over Bayern Munich, where his dribbling and chance creation propelled them to the final amid Ligue 1 title success. Harry Kane's record 50+ Bundesliga goals and Bayern's domestic double keep him nipping at 18%, but their CL exit tempers momentum. Declan Rice's midfield dominance has Arsenal in the UCL final and Premier League contention, surging him to 11%, while Kylian Mbappé's 40-goal La Liga haul at Real Madrid and Lamine Yamal's Barcelona assists hold steady at 9-10%. The bunched top tier reflects no decisive standout, with the Champions League final and 2026 World Cup qualifiers poised to shift dynamics in this fiercely competitive race.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$3,186,090
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related

icon for New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

52%
icon for Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

29%
icon for Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ousmane Dembélé" at 23%, followed by "Harry Kane" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" has generated $3.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" is "Ousmane Dembélé" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Harry Kane" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.