Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or 2026 market at 59.4% implied probability, reflecting traders' emphasis on his record goal tally and consistent output across Bayern Munich's Bundesliga campaign plus England's World Cup run, where he extended his national scoring mark. Lamine Yamal sits second at 17.7% on the back of Spain's tournament triumph and his ongoing breakout form, while Rodri at 8.5% benefits from winning the FIFA Golden Ball despite lower overall volume. Kylian Mbappé trails at 7.6% after France's earlier exit. Market pricing has stabilized post-World Cup with limited movement in the past month, underscoring Kane's edge in season-long metrics over international peaks from younger or veteran contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHarry Kane 59.4%
Lamine Yamal 17.7%
Rodri 9%
Kylian Mbappé 7.6%
$28,071,458 Vol.
$28,071,458 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Harry Kane
59%
Lamine Yamal
18%
Rodri
9%
Kylian Mbappé
8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
2%
Lionel Messi
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
2%
Fabian Ruiz
1%
Erling Haaland
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
<1%
Jude Bellingham
<1%
Michael Olise
<1%
Declan Rice
<1%
Vitinha
<1%
Mohamed Salah
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
<1%
Pedri
<1%
Cole Palmer
<1%
Julian Alvarez
<1%
Raphinha
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
<1%
Federico Valverde
<1%
Desire Doue
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
<1%
Luis Diaz
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
<1%
Rodrygo
<1%
Bukayo Saka
<1%
Harry Kane 59.4%
Lamine Yamal 17.7%
Rodri 9%
Kylian Mbappé 7.6%
$28,071,458 Vol.
$28,071,458 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Harry Kane
$3,274,478 Vol.
59%
Lamine Yamal
$1,761,839 Vol.
18%
Rodri
$1,038,368 Vol.
9%
Kylian Mbappé
$1,523,363 Vol.
8%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
$1,023,927 Vol.
2%
Lionel Messi
$1,876,387 Vol.
2%
Ousmane Dembélé
$1,730,935 Vol.
2%
Fabian Ruiz
$798,373 Vol.
1%
Erling Haaland
$1,129,129 Vol.
<1%
Pau Cubarsi
$785,874 Vol.
<1%
Jude Bellingham
$1,004,884 Vol.
<1%
Michael Olise
$1,069,110 Vol.
<1%
Declan Rice
$793,986 Vol.
<1%
Vitinha
$673,534 Vol.
<1%
Mohamed Salah
$1,057,642 Vol.
<1%
Vinícius Júnior
$1,066,431 Vol.
<1%
Pedri
$879,645 Vol.
<1%
Cole Palmer
$678,611 Vol.
<1%
Julian Alvarez
$731,885 Vol.
<1%
Raphinha
$694,097 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Fernandes
$708,049 Vol.
<1%
Lautaro Martinez
$486,133 Vol.
<1%
Cristiano Ronaldo
$457,373 Vol.
<1%
Enzo Fernandez
$66,071 Vol.
<1%
Federico Valverde
$446,646 Vol.
<1%
Desire Doue
$732,298 Vol.
<1%
Achraf Hakimi
$739,016 Vol.
<1%
Luis Diaz
$439,280 Vol.
<1%
Dominik Szoboszlai
$168,271 Vol.
<1%
Rodrygo
$88,121 Vol.
<1%
Bukayo Saka
$147,747 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or 2026 market at 59.4% implied probability, reflecting traders' emphasis on his record goal tally and consistent output across Bayern Munich's Bundesliga campaign plus England's World Cup run, where he extended his national scoring mark. Lamine Yamal sits second at 17.7% on the back of Spain's tournament triumph and his ongoing breakout form, while Rodri at 8.5% benefits from winning the FIFA Golden Ball despite lower overall volume. Kylian Mbappé trails at 7.6% after France's earlier exit. Market pricing has stabilized post-World Cup with limited movement in the past month, underscoring Kane's edge in season-long metrics over international peaks from younger or veteran contenders.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$28,071,458End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or 2026 market at 59.4% implied probability, reflecting traders' emphasis on his record goal tally and consistent output across Bayern Munich's Bundesliga campaign plus England's World Cup run, where he extended his national scoring mark. Lamine Yamal sits second at 17.7% on the back of Spain's tournament triumph and his ongoing breakout form, while Rodri at 8.5% benefits from winning the FIFA Golden Ball despite lower overall volume. Kylian Mbappé trails at 7.6% after France's earlier exit. Market pricing has stabilized post-World Cup with limited movement in the past month, underscoring Kane's edge in season-long metrics over international peaks from younger or veteran contenders.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Volume
$28,071,458End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Harry Kane leads the Ballon d'Or 2026 market at 59.4% implied probability, reflecting traders' emphasis on his record goal tally and consistent output across Bayern Munich's Bundesliga campaign plus England's World Cup run, where he extended his national scoring mark. Lamine Yamal sits second at 17.7% on the back of Spain's tournament triumph and his ongoing breakout form, while Rodri at 8.5% benefits from winning the FIFA Golden Ball despite lower overall volume. Kylian Mbappé trails at 7.6% after France's earlier exit. Market pricing has stabilized post-World Cup with limited movement in the past month, underscoring Kane's edge in season-long metrics over international peaks from younger or veteran contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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