Eileen Gu, the U.S.-born freestyle skier who has represented China since 2019, faces ongoing scrutiny over her citizenship status amid U.S.-China tensions and renewed attention during the 2026 Winter Olympics cycle. U.S. law permits dual nationality and does not automatically revoke citizenship for competing for another country or maintaining ties abroad, with revocation reserved for narrow statutory grounds such as formal renunciation or specific criminal acts. No official U.S. government action or legislative proposal has targeted her status, and public comments from figures like JD Vance remain rhetorical without triggering administrative processes. Traders assign a 95.5% probability to no revocation by the December 31, 2026 resolution date because such outcomes require concrete legal steps that have not materialized despite years of debate. Rare shifts could occur only through new evidence of naturalization formalities, executive policy changes, or congressional action altering expatriation rules.