Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 4?
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 交易量
$70,842 交易量
2026-05-04
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
Yes
41°C or higher 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$70,842 交易量
$70,842 交易量
2026-05-04
31°C or below
$1,068 交易量
No
32°C
$391 交易量
No
33°C
$2,417 交易量
No
34°C
$3,357 交易量
No
35°C
$1,240 交易量
No
36°C
$1,242 交易量
No
37°C
$2,360 交易量
No
38°C
$5,337 交易量
No
39°C
$3,053 交易量
No
40°C
$5,583 交易量
No
41°C or higher
$44,794 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$70,842結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$70,842結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or higher in Karachi on May 4 at the Masroor Airbase Station, driven by the Pakistan Meteorological Department's (PMD) forecast of 39–41°C amid an intensifying pre-monsoon heatwave. Recent observations confirm this trajectory, with mercury reaching 42°C yesterday under a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and minimal sea breeze influence, amplified by urban heat island effects in the megacity. Historical May peaks routinely exceed 40°C during such events, supporting model consensus from PMD updates. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen strengthening of onshore winds or isolated cloud cover capping peaks below 41°C, though dry conditions are expected to prevail through afternoon observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions