Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 交易量
$95,898 交易量
2026-05-06
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 交易量
$95,898 交易量
2026-05-06
15°C or below
$451 交易量
No
16°C
$2,872 交易量
No
17°C
$3,922 交易量
No
18°C
$6,427 交易量
No
19°C
$25,366 交易量
No
20°C
$18,244 交易量
Yes
21°C
$11,151 交易量
No
22°C
$9,066 交易量
No
23°C
$6,075 交易量
No
24°C
$5,768 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$6,557 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
交易量
$95,898結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$95,898結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions