**No new pandemic before 2028 holds an 83% market-implied probability** because no novel pathogen has shown sustained, efficient human-to-human transmission with pandemic potential since mid-2026. WHO and CDC surveillance confirm that current outbreaks—such as the Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC in the DRC and Uganda, with thousands of cases but limited geographic spread—remain regionally contained due to Ebola’s transmission mode. Avian influenza H5N1 shows no evidence of sustained human adaptation, while mpox, Oropouche, dengue, and chikungunya surges stay geographically limited without exponential global growth. Post-COVID genomic sequencing and early-warning systems have further reduced escalation risk. Historical annual probabilities of a COVID-scale pandemic are estimated at 2–3%, supporting trader consensus that the roughly 1.5-year window to 2028 carries only modest odds of a qualifying event absent major viral evolution or undetected zoonotic spillover.