The Supreme Court’s June 30 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to Connecticut’s and Cook County’s AR-15-style rifle bans has become the dominant factor supporting the current 55.5% implied probability that the Court will invalidate such restrictions. With oral arguments set for the October 2026 term and a decision expected by mid-2027, traders are pricing in the 6-3 conservative majority’s recent expansion of Second Amendment protections under the Bruen framework, including signals from Justices Kavanaugh and Thomas that these commonly owned semiautomatic rifles are likely “in common use” for lawful purposes. Recent rulings striking down related gun restrictions have reinforced expectations that lower-court upholding of the bans will be reversed, though the outcome remains closely contested given the need for at least five votes and potential nuances in how the Court defines protected “arms.”