In this short-notice lightweight prelim bout at UFC Vegas 116 on April 25, trader consensus heavily favored Francis Marshall (9-3, 3-3 UFC) over debuting former Bellator standout Lucas Brennan (11-2) entering the Octagon, implying probabilities around 80% for Marshall due to his Octagon experience, second-degree BJJ black belt credentials, and striking volume (3.39 significant strikes per minute). Brennan's five-day camp disrupted preparation, amplifying risks in a stylistic matchup favoring Marshall's grappling (2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes). No major injuries or weigh-in issues emerged, though the Apex environment neutralized home advantages; Marshall validated sentiment with a dominant unanimous decision (30-27 x3), dominating across three rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThis market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Brennan defeats Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Francis Marshall defeats Lucas Brennan at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1.
“Under 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for a 0.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.
“Under 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for a 1.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
“Under 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.In this short-notice lightweight prelim bout at UFC Vegas 116 on April 25, trader consensus heavily favored Francis Marshall (9-3, 3-3 UFC) over debuting former Bellator standout Lucas Brennan (11-2) entering the Octagon, implying probabilities around 80% for Marshall due to his Octagon experience, second-degree BJJ black belt credentials, and striking volume (3.39 significant strikes per minute). Brennan's five-day camp disrupted preparation, amplifying risks in a stylistic matchup favoring Marshall's grappling (2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes). No major injuries or weigh-in issues emerged, though the Apex environment neutralized home advantages; Marshall validated sentiment with a dominant unanimous decision (30-27 x3), dominating across three rounds.
This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$180,171End Date
Apr 26, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.ufc.com/eventsResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lucas Brennan defeats Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Francis Marshall defeats Lucas Brennan at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1.
“Under 0.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 1 for a 0.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.
“Under 1.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 2 for a 1.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.Each market will resolve to “Over” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.
Each market will resolve to “Under” if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, does not last beyond the listed round threshold.
For example:
“Over 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
“Under 2.5 Rounds” will resolve “Yes” if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve “50-50.”
If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond May 9, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve “50-50.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.In this short-notice lightweight prelim bout at UFC Vegas 116 on April 25, trader consensus heavily favored Francis Marshall (9-3, 3-3 UFC) over debuting former Bellator standout Lucas Brennan (11-2) entering the Octagon, implying probabilities around 80% for Marshall due to his Octagon experience, second-degree BJJ black belt credentials, and striking volume (3.39 significant strikes per minute). Brennan's five-day camp disrupted preparation, amplifying risks in a stylistic matchup favoring Marshall's grappling (2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes). No major injuries or weigh-in issues emerged, though the Apex environment neutralized home advantages; Marshall validated sentiment with a dominant unanimous decision (30-27 x3), dominating across three rounds.
This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$180,171End Date
Apr 26, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.ufc.com/eventsResolver
0x65070BE91...In this short-notice lightweight prelim bout at UFC Vegas 116 on April 25, trader consensus heavily favored Francis Marshall (9-3, 3-3 UFC) over debuting former Bellator standout Lucas Brennan (11-2) entering the Octagon, implying probabilities around 80% for Marshall due to his Octagon experience, second-degree BJJ black belt credentials, and striking volume (3.39 significant strikes per minute). Brennan's five-day camp disrupted preparation, amplifying risks in a stylistic matchup favoring Marshall's grappling (2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes). No major injuries or weigh-in issues emerged, though the Apex environment neutralized home advantages; Marshall validated sentiment with a dominant unanimous decision (30-27 x3), dominating across three rounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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