The return of the Best Dance category after seven years, paired with nominations announced in mid-August, has shaped trader sentiment around the seven contenders ahead of the September 27 VMAs. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the highest implied probability at 40.5% on the strength of her record 11 total nods, the project’s critical reception as a visual companion to her dancefloor album, and her long-standing choreography legacy. PinkPantheress + Zara Larsson’s “Stateside” follows at 29%, buoyed by current streaming traction, while Harry Styles’ “Aperture,” Lady Gaga & Doechii’s “Runway,” Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl,” Bebe Rexha & Faithless’ “New Religion,” and Slayyyter’s “DANCE…” sit lower amid a crowded field of strong pop-dance releases. Fan voting through September 25 and the live ceremony remain the key swing factors in this closely contested market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Best Dance 2026
VMA Best Dance 2026
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 41%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 29%
Aperture (Harry Styles) 9%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 9%
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)
41%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
29%
Aperture (Harry Styles)
9%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)
9%
Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)
6%
New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)
5%
Dance... (Slayyyter)
5%
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna) 41%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress) 29%
Aperture (Harry Styles) 9%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii) 9%
Confessions II – The Film (Madonna)
41%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
29%
Aperture (Harry Styles)
9%
Runway (Lady Gaga and Doechii)
9%
Nobody's Girl (Tate McRae)
6%
New Religion (Bebe Rexha and Faithless)
5%
Dance... (Slayyyter)
5%
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Dance when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The return of the Best Dance category after seven years, paired with nominations announced in mid-August, has shaped trader sentiment around the seven contenders ahead of the September 27 VMAs. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” holds the highest implied probability at 40.5% on the strength of her record 11 total nods, the project’s critical reception as a visual companion to her dancefloor album, and her long-standing choreography legacy. PinkPantheress + Zara Larsson’s “Stateside” follows at 29%, buoyed by current streaming traction, while Harry Styles’ “Aperture,” Lady Gaga & Doechii’s “Runway,” Tate McRae’s “Nobody’s Girl,” Bebe Rexha & Faithless’ “New Religion,” and Slayyyter’s “DANCE…” sit lower amid a crowded field of strong pop-dance releases. Fan voting through September 25 and the live ceremony remain the key swing factors in this closely contested market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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