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Sports·WSOP

WSOP Main Event Winner

icon for WSOP Main Event Winner
Sports·WSOP

WSOP Main Event Winner

Greg Mueller 47%

Lucas Jumalon 37%

Mario Boos 23%

Lauri Saaskilahti 23%

Polymarket
NEW

Greg Mueller 47%

Lucas Jumalon 37%

Mario Boos 23%

Lauri Saaskilahti 23%

Polymarket
NEW

Lucas Jumalon

$0 Vol.

37%

Rami Hammoud

$0 Vol.

18%

Jamie Shaevel

$0 Vol.

7%

Greg Mueller

$42 Vol.

47%

Michael Gagliano

$0 Vol.

11%

Mario Boos

$0 Vol.

23%

Lauri Saaskilahti

$0 Vol.

23%

Han Feng

$0 Vol.

8%

Evagoras Evagorou

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lucas Jumalon holds a commanding chip lead of 194 million heading into the 2026 WSOP Main Event final table, more than double his nearest rival, which underpins the slight 52.5% trader consensus edge reflected in current pricing. Rami Hammoud, Jamie Shaevel, Greg Mueller, and Michael Gagliano follow with stacks between 46-79 million, creating a competitive dynamic among the top contenders where skill edges, table position, and post-flop play can rapidly shift momentum. Smaller stacks like Mario Boos and Lauri Saaskilahti sit in the 22.5% range, while Han Feng and Evagoras Evagorou trail further behind at 7.5% and 5.5%. High variance in no-limit hold'em, combined with weeks until resumption, keeps implied probabilities closely bunched despite the chip disparity.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada.

If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lucas Jumalon holds a commanding chip lead of 194 million heading into the 2026 WSOP Main Event final table, more than double his nearest rival, which underpins the slight 52.5% trader consensus edge reflected in current pricing. Rami Hammoud, Jamie Shaevel, Greg Mueller, and Michael Gagliano follow with stacks between 46-79 million, creating a competitive dynamic among the top contenders where skill edges, table position, and post-flop play can rapidly shift momentum. Smaller stacks like Mario Boos and Lauri Saaskilahti sit in the 22.5% range, while Han Feng and Evagoras Evagorou trail further behind at 7.5% and 5.5%. High variance in no-limit hold'em, combined with weeks until resumption, keeps implied probabilities closely bunched despite the chip disparity.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada.

If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$42
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 1:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"WSOP Main Event Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Greg Mueller" at 47%, followed by "Lucas Jumalon" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"WSOP Main Event Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "WSOP Main Event Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "WSOP Main Event Winner" is "Greg Mueller" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lucas Jumalon" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "WSOP Main Event Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.