Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have weighed on 2026 global GDP outlooks, yet AI-related capital spending and resilient U.S. consumption have provided offsets. Official forecasts reflect this tension: the OECD raised its September 23 projection to 2.9 percent, Fitch sees 2.6 percent, and the World Bank projects 2.5 percent, while the IMF’s July estimate stands at 3.0 percent. Polymarket prices cluster tightly around 3.0–3.1 percent because traders weigh persistent inflationary pressures and potential monetary tightening against inventory buffers, non-Gulf supply gains, and technology investment. Key swing factors include conflict duration, El Niño impacts on food prices, and whether AI returns meet expectations, all of which could shift implied probabilities ahead of year-end data releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour3,1 % 29.6%
≤2,9 % 23.9%
3,2 % 16.4%
3,0 % 11.9%
$43,635 Vol.
$43,635 Vol.
14 janv. 2027
≤2,9 %
24%
3,0 %
12%
3,1 %
30%
3,2 %
16%
3,3 %
5%
3,4 %
4%
3,5 %
2%
3,6 %
3%
3,7 %+
10%
3,1 % 29.6%
≤2,9 % 23.9%
3,2 % 16.4%
3,0 % 11.9%
$43,635 Vol.
$43,635 Vol.
14 janv. 2027
≤2,9 %
$9,404 Vol.
24%
3,0 %
$5,432 Vol.
12%
3,1 %
$9,044 Vol.
30%
3,2 %
$5,494 Vol.
16%
3,3 %
$4,059 Vol.
5%
3,4 %
$4,568 Vol.
4%
3,5 %
$3,612 Vol.
2%
3,6 %
$939 Vol.
3%
3,7 %+
$1,084 Vol.
10%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have weighed on 2026 global GDP outlooks, yet AI-related capital spending and resilient U.S. consumption have provided offsets. Official forecasts reflect this tension: the OECD raised its September 23 projection to 2.9 percent, Fitch sees 2.6 percent, and the World Bank projects 2.5 percent, while the IMF’s July estimate stands at 3.0 percent. Polymarket prices cluster tightly around 3.0–3.1 percent because traders weigh persistent inflationary pressures and potential monetary tightening against inventory buffers, non-Gulf supply gains, and technology investment. Key swing factors include conflict duration, El Niño impacts on food prices, and whether AI returns meet expectations, all of which could shift implied probabilities ahead of year-end data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$43,635Date de fin
1 mai 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have weighed on 2026 global GDP outlooks, yet AI-related capital spending and resilient U.S. consumption have provided offsets. Official forecasts reflect this tension: the OECD raised its September 23 projection to 2.9 percent, Fitch sees 2.6 percent, and the World Bank projects 2.5 percent, while the IMF’s July estimate stands at 3.0 percent. Polymarket prices cluster tightly around 3.0–3.1 percent because traders weigh persistent inflationary pressures and potential monetary tightening against inventory buffers, non-Gulf supply gains, and technology investment. Key swing factors include conflict duration, El Niño impacts on food prices, and whether AI returns meet expectations, all of which could shift implied probabilities ahead of year-end data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$43,635Date de fin
1 mai 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have weighed on 2026 global GDP outlooks, yet AI-related capital spending and resilient U.S. consumption have provided offsets. Official forecasts reflect this tension: the OECD raised its September 23 projection to 2.9 percent, Fitch sees 2.6 percent, and the World Bank projects 2.5 percent, while the IMF’s July estimate stands at 3.0 percent. Polymarket prices cluster tightly around 3.0–3.1 percent because traders weigh persistent inflationary pressures and potential monetary tightening against inventory buffers, non-Gulf supply gains, and technology investment. Key swing factors include conflict duration, El Niño impacts on food prices, and whether AI returns meet expectations, all of which could shift implied probabilities ahead of year-end data releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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