Traders assign the highest probabilities to 3.0% and 3.1% world GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline under a limited Middle East conflict scenario, which projects 3.1% amid offsetting technology investment and policy support. Recent downside revisions, including the World Bank’s June 11 cut to 2.5% citing elevated energy prices and inflation pressures, elevate the 26% odds on ≤2.9% outcomes and underscore risks from commodity shocks or prolonged hostilities. Goldman Sachs and OECD forecasts near 2.8–2.9% further highlight the contested range, with market-implied odds capturing skin-in-the-game consensus on whether the conflict remains contained or broadens into deeper fragmentation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance du PIB mondial en 2026
Croissance du PIB mondial en 2026
3,0 % 39.0%
3,1 % 30.1%
≤2,9 % 18%
3,2 % 13.8%
$17,823 Vol.
$17,823 Vol.
15 janv. 2027
≤2,9 %
23%
3,0 %
39%
3,1 %
36%
3,2 %
20%
3,3 %
11%
3,4 %
5%
3,5 %
2%
3,6 %
2%
3,7 %+
5%
3,0 % 39.0%
3,1 % 30.1%
≤2,9 % 18%
3,2 % 13.8%
$17,823 Vol.
$17,823 Vol.
15 janv. 2027
≤2,9 %
$3,777 Vol.
23%
3,0 %
$492 Vol.
39%
3,1 %
$481 Vol.
36%
3,2 %
$1,702 Vol.
20%
3,3 %
$3,445 Vol.
11%
3,4 %
$3,544 Vol.
5%
3,5 %
$3,111 Vol.
2%
3,6 %
$471 Vol.
2%
3,7 %+
$800 Vol.
5%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 3.0% and 3.1% world GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline under a limited Middle East conflict scenario, which projects 3.1% amid offsetting technology investment and policy support. Recent downside revisions, including the World Bank’s June 11 cut to 2.5% citing elevated energy prices and inflation pressures, elevate the 26% odds on ≤2.9% outcomes and underscore risks from commodity shocks or prolonged hostilities. Goldman Sachs and OECD forecasts near 2.8–2.9% further highlight the contested range, with market-implied odds capturing skin-in-the-game consensus on whether the conflict remains contained or broadens into deeper fragmentation.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,823Date de fin
15 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 3.0% and 3.1% world GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline under a limited Middle East conflict scenario, which projects 3.1% amid offsetting technology investment and policy support. Recent downside revisions, including the World Bank’s June 11 cut to 2.5% citing elevated energy prices and inflation pressures, elevate the 26% odds on ≤2.9% outcomes and underscore risks from commodity shocks or prolonged hostilities. Goldman Sachs and OECD forecasts near 2.8–2.9% further highlight the contested range, with market-implied odds capturing skin-in-the-game consensus on whether the conflict remains contained or broadens into deeper fragmentation.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,823Date de fin
15 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest probabilities to 3.0% and 3.1% world GDP growth for 2026, reflecting the IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook baseline under a limited Middle East conflict scenario, which projects 3.1% amid offsetting technology investment and policy support. Recent downside revisions, including the World Bank’s June 11 cut to 2.5% citing elevated energy prices and inflation pressures, elevate the 26% odds on ≤2.9% outcomes and underscore risks from commodity shocks or prolonged hostilities. Goldman Sachs and OECD forecasts near 2.8–2.9% further highlight the contested range, with market-implied odds capturing skin-in-the-game consensus on whether the conflict remains contained or broadens into deeper fragmentation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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