Recent quarterly GDP prints of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 2026, alongside a surprise 0.4% monthly gain in July, have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%. Bank of England, OECD, and IMF projections cluster around 0.9–1.1%, reflecting subdued momentum from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are eroding real incomes and widening economic slack. The BoE’s 3.75% Bank Rate and CPI near 2.9% underscore tight financial conditions that continue to constrain household spending and business investment. While services and AI-driven productivity provide some offset, the data trajectory keeps the 1–2% band as the dominant market-implied outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1-2 % 88.8%
0-1 % 10%
3-4 % 1.4%
<0 1.0%
$83,507 Vol.
$83,507 Vol.
11 févr. 2027
<0
1%
0-1 %
10%
1-2 %
89%
2-3 %
1%
3-4 %
1%
4-5 %
<1%
5 %+
<1%
1-2 % 88.8%
0-1 % 10%
3-4 % 1.4%
<0 1.0%
$83,507 Vol.
$83,507 Vol.
11 févr. 2027
<0
$11,971 Vol.
1%
0-1 %
$20,172 Vol.
10%
1-2 %
$30,118 Vol.
89%
2-3 %
$4,731 Vol.
1%
3-4 %
$3,663 Vol.
1%
4-5 %
$8,810 Vol.
<1%
5 %+
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 2026, alongside a surprise 0.4% monthly gain in July, have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%. Bank of England, OECD, and IMF projections cluster around 0.9–1.1%, reflecting subdued momentum from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are eroding real incomes and widening economic slack. The BoE’s 3.75% Bank Rate and CPI near 2.9% underscore tight financial conditions that continue to constrain household spending and business investment. While services and AI-driven productivity provide some offset, the data trajectory keeps the 1–2% band as the dominant market-implied outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$83,507Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent quarterly GDP prints of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 2026, alongside a surprise 0.4% monthly gain in July, have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%. Bank of England, OECD, and IMF projections cluster around 0.9–1.1%, reflecting subdued momentum from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are eroding real incomes and widening economic slack. The BoE’s 3.75% Bank Rate and CPI near 2.9% underscore tight financial conditions that continue to constrain household spending and business investment. While services and AI-driven productivity provide some offset, the data trajectory keeps the 1–2% band as the dominant market-implied outcome.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,507Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Recent quarterly GDP prints of 0.6% in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2 2026, alongside a surprise 0.4% monthly gain in July, have reinforced trader expectations for full-year expansion near 1.1%. Bank of England, OECD, and IMF projections cluster around 0.9–1.1%, reflecting subdued momentum from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are eroding real incomes and widening economic slack. The BoE’s 3.75% Bank Rate and CPI near 2.9% underscore tight financial conditions that continue to constrain household spending and business investment. While services and AI-driven productivity provide some offset, the data trajectory keeps the 1–2% band as the dominant market-implied outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes