Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now clustered around 1.0-1.3% following stronger-than-expected H1 exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure, underpin the relatively even distribution of Polymarket probabilities across moderate positive growth bands for Q3. Traders price in resilience from government spending and carryover effects, yet assign meaningful weight to downside risks including elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7% inflation, and temporary production constraints from low Rhine water levels. Q2's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion and leading indicators showing tentative momentum highlight the narrow balance between these forces, with the Q3 flash release expected in late October serving as the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.7-0.9% 23%
1.3%+ 19%
1.0-1.2% 17%
0.4-0.6% 8.7%
$36,217 Vol.
$36,217 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
≤0.0%
6%
0.1-0.3%
7%
0.4-0.6%
11%
0.7-0.9%
23%
1.0-1.2%
17%
1.3%+
19%
0.7-0.9% 23%
1.3%+ 19%
1.0-1.2% 17%
0.4-0.6% 8.7%
$36,217 Vol.
$36,217 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
≤0.0%
$1,373 Vol.
6%
0.1-0.3%
$1,656 Vol.
7%
0.4-0.6%
$715 Vol.
11%
0.7-0.9%
$5,825 Vol.
23%
1.0-1.2%
$22,337 Vol.
17%
1.3%+
$4,313 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now clustered around 1.0-1.3% following stronger-than-expected H1 exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure, underpin the relatively even distribution of Polymarket probabilities across moderate positive growth bands for Q3. Traders price in resilience from government spending and carryover effects, yet assign meaningful weight to downside risks including elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7% inflation, and temporary production constraints from low Rhine water levels. Q2's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion and leading indicators showing tentative momentum highlight the narrow balance between these forces, with the Q3 flash release expected in late October serving as the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volume
$36,217Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now clustered around 1.0-1.3% following stronger-than-expected H1 exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure, underpin the relatively even distribution of Polymarket probabilities across moderate positive growth bands for Q3. Traders price in resilience from government spending and carryover effects, yet assign meaningful weight to downside risks including elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7% inflation, and temporary production constraints from low Rhine water levels. Q2's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion and leading indicators showing tentative momentum highlight the narrow balance between these forces, with the Q3 flash release expected in late October serving as the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,217Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP outlook, now clustered around 1.0-1.3% following stronger-than-expected H1 exports and fiscal stimulus on defense and infrastructure, underpin the relatively even distribution of Polymarket probabilities across moderate positive growth bands for Q3. Traders price in resilience from government spending and carryover effects, yet assign meaningful weight to downside risks including elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, subdued private consumption amid 2.7% inflation, and temporary production constraints from low Rhine water levels. Q2's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion and leading indicators showing tentative momentum highlight the narrow balance between these forces, with the Q3 flash release expected in late October serving as the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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