Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near 1.5–2.5% on an annual basis. Closely matched probabilities between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins reflect uncertainty over whether resilient exports and nearshoring momentum can offset subdued domestic demand, weak private investment, and USMCA review risks. Government forecasts for 2026 GDP were lowered to a 1–2% range, while private analysts cluster around 1.2–1.4%, consistent with easing inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and leading indicators ahead of the October 30 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 10.3%
$25,734 Vol.
$25,734 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
10%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
20%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 10.3%
$25,734 Vol.
$25,734 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$474 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Vol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,438 Vol.
10%
1.5-2.0%
$8,548 Vol.
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 Vol.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,133 Vol.
20%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Vol.
1%
3.5%+
$438 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near 1.5–2.5% on an annual basis. Closely matched probabilities between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins reflect uncertainty over whether resilient exports and nearshoring momentum can offset subdued domestic demand, weak private investment, and USMCA review risks. Government forecasts for 2026 GDP were lowered to a 1–2% range, while private analysts cluster around 1.2–1.4%, consistent with easing inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and leading indicators ahead of the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,734Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near 1.5–2.5% on an annual basis. Closely matched probabilities between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins reflect uncertainty over whether resilient exports and nearshoring momentum can offset subdued domestic demand, weak private investment, and USMCA review risks. Government forecasts for 2026 GDP were lowered to a 1–2% range, while private analysts cluster around 1.2–1.4%, consistent with easing inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and leading indicators ahead of the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,734Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data, showing a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction alongside 2.1% year-over-year growth, anchors trader expectations for Mexico’s Q3 print near 1.5–2.5% on an annual basis. Closely matched probabilities between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins reflect uncertainty over whether resilient exports and nearshoring momentum can offset subdued domestic demand, weak private investment, and USMCA review risks. Government forecasts for 2026 GDP were lowered to a 1–2% range, while private analysts cluster around 1.2–1.4%, consistent with easing inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate. Key swing factors include September industrial production, retail sales, and leading indicators ahead of the October 30 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes