Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding sharply from the prior contraction, combined with full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 1.3% and 1.6%, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5-2.0% bucket for Q3. Modest domestic demand, persistent core inflation near 4%, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% after earlier easing reflect cautious monetary conditions, while record foreign direct investment from nearshoring supports external demand. Key swing factors include the July 2026 start of USMCA review negotiations and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum accelerates or stalls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1.5-2.0% 44%
2.0-2.5% 25%
1.0-1.5% 16%
2.5-3.0% 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
5%
0.5-1.0%
5%
1.0-1.5%
11%
1.5-2.0%
44%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
11%
3.0-3.5%
5%
3.5%+
5%
1.5-2.0% 44%
2.0-2.5% 25%
1.0-1.5% 16%
2.5-3.0% 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$144 Vol.
5%
0.5-1.0%
$143 Vol.
5%
1.0-1.5%
$163 Vol.
11%
1.5-2.0%
$516 Vol.
44%
2.0-2.5%
$143 Vol.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$225 Vol.
11%
3.0-3.5%
$143 Vol.
5%
3.5%+
$143 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding sharply from the prior contraction, combined with full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 1.3% and 1.6%, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5-2.0% bucket for Q3. Modest domestic demand, persistent core inflation near 4%, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% after earlier easing reflect cautious monetary conditions, while record foreign direct investment from nearshoring supports external demand. Key swing factors include the July 2026 start of USMCA review negotiations and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum accelerates or stalls.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,620Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding sharply from the prior contraction, combined with full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 1.3% and 1.6%, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5-2.0% bucket for Q3. Modest domestic demand, persistent core inflation near 4%, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% after earlier easing reflect cautious monetary conditions, while record foreign direct investment from nearshoring supports external demand. Key swing factors include the July 2026 start of USMCA review negotiations and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum accelerates or stalls.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,620Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter, rebounding sharply from the prior contraction, combined with full-year consensus forecasts clustered between 1.3% and 1.6%, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5-2.0% bucket for Q3. Modest domestic demand, persistent core inflation near 4%, and Banxico’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% after earlier easing reflect cautious monetary conditions, while record foreign direct investment from nearshoring supports external demand. Key swing factors include the July 2026 start of USMCA review negotiations and upcoming inflation and employment releases that could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum accelerates or stalls.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes