Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, has reinforced trader consensus around subdued full-year expansion. Consensus forecasts from the ECB, OECD, and IMF cluster between 0.8% and 1.0% for 2026, reflecting the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, higher input costs, and the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.25% amid projected 3.0% average inflation. Resilient labor markets near 6.3% unemployment and pockets of AI-driven investment plus fiscal support provide partial offsets, but weak Q1 momentum and cooling demand have kept probabilities for outcomes above 2% below 3%. These factors align market-implied odds tightly with the prevailing low-growth base case.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 68.8%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.3%
4,0-5,0 % 3.7%
$29,186 Vol.
$29,186 Vol.
<0 %
4%
0-1,0 %
69%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
2%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
4%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 68.8%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.3%
4,0-5,0 % 3.7%
$29,186 Vol.
$29,186 Vol.
<0 %
4%
0-1,0 %
69%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
2%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
4%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, has reinforced trader consensus around subdued full-year expansion. Consensus forecasts from the ECB, OECD, and IMF cluster between 0.8% and 1.0% for 2026, reflecting the drag from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, higher input costs, and the ECB's June 25-basis-point rate hike to 2.25% amid projected 3.0% average inflation. Resilient labor markets near 6.3% unemployment and pockets of AI-driven investment plus fiscal support provide partial offsets, but weak Q1 momentum and cooling demand have kept probabilities for outcomes above 2% below 3%. These factors align market-implied odds tightly with the prevailing low-growth base case.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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