Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered an energy price shock, prompting downward revisions to Eurozone growth projections and anchoring trader consensus around subdued expansion. Official forecasts from the ECB, European Commission, and OECD now center on 0.8–0.9% real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting weaker domestic demand, elevated input costs, and lingering uncertainty after a flat Q1 print. The stronger-than-expected 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2 2026 and annual rate reaching 1.0% provide limited offset, as forward-looking indicators signal cooling momentum. These developments sustain the 66.6% implied probability on the 0–1.0% bucket while capping the 1.0–2.0% range at 24.5%, consistent with markets pricing modest positive growth amid persistent headwinds rather than a robust rebound.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 66.7%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.2%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,866 Vol.
$28,866 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
4%
0-1,0 %
67%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 66.7%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.2%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,866 Vol.
$28,866 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
$1,615 Vol.
4%
0-1,0 %
$10,789 Vol.
67%
1,0-2,0 %
$6,957 Vol.
25%
2,0-3,0 %
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
$1,027 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
$2,108 Vol.
1%
5,0-6,0 %
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
$2,544 Vol.
1%
7,0 %+
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered an energy price shock, prompting downward revisions to Eurozone growth projections and anchoring trader consensus around subdued expansion. Official forecasts from the ECB, European Commission, and OECD now center on 0.8–0.9% real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting weaker domestic demand, elevated input costs, and lingering uncertainty after a flat Q1 print. The stronger-than-expected 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2 2026 and annual rate reaching 1.0% provide limited offset, as forward-looking indicators signal cooling momentum. These developments sustain the 66.6% implied probability on the 0–1.0% bucket while capping the 1.0–2.0% range at 24.5%, consistent with markets pricing modest positive growth amid persistent headwinds rather than a robust rebound.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$28,866Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered an energy price shock, prompting downward revisions to Eurozone growth projections and anchoring trader consensus around subdued expansion. Official forecasts from the ECB, European Commission, and OECD now center on 0.8–0.9% real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting weaker domestic demand, elevated input costs, and lingering uncertainty after a flat Q1 print. The stronger-than-expected 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2 2026 and annual rate reaching 1.0% provide limited offset, as forward-looking indicators signal cooling momentum. These developments sustain the 66.6% implied probability on the 0–1.0% bucket while capping the 1.0–2.0% range at 24.5%, consistent with markets pricing modest positive growth amid persistent headwinds rather than a robust rebound.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,866Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered an energy price shock, prompting downward revisions to Eurozone growth projections and anchoring trader consensus around subdued expansion. Official forecasts from the ECB, European Commission, and OECD now center on 0.8–0.9% real GDP growth for 2026, reflecting weaker domestic demand, elevated input costs, and lingering uncertainty after a flat Q1 print. The stronger-than-expected 0.4% QoQ expansion in Q2 2026 and annual rate reaching 1.0% provide limited offset, as forward-looking indicators signal cooling momentum. These developments sustain the 66.6% implied probability on the 0–1.0% bucket while capping the 1.0–2.0% range at 24.5%, consistent with markets pricing modest positive growth amid persistent headwinds rather than a robust rebound.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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