Recent ECB staff projections and OECD forecasts place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9–1.0% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid greater-than-expected resilience in Q2 data and defense-related spending despite the Middle East energy shock. Elevated energy prices have driven headline inflation toward 3.0% and prompted the ECB to lift the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, tightening financial conditions and capping domestic demand. The labor market remains near historic lows with unemployment around 6.3%, yet employment growth has slowed. With official estimates clustered near the 1% threshold and risks balanced between persistent inflation pressures and export support from global demand, trader-implied probabilities remain closely split between the 0–1.0% and 1.0–2.0% ranges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance annuelle du PIB de la zone euro 2026
Croissance annuelle du PIB de la zone euro 2026
0-1,0 % 47.8%
1,0-2,0 % 45%
<0 % 3.1%
2,0-3,0 % <1%
$53,835 Vol.
$53,835 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
3%
0-1,0 %
48%
1,0-2,0 %
45%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
<1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 47.8%
1,0-2,0 % 45%
<0 % 3.1%
2,0-3,0 % <1%
$53,835 Vol.
$53,835 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
$2,837 Vol.
3%
0-1,0 %
$17,612 Vol.
48%
1,0-2,0 %
$16,632 Vol.
45%
2,0-3,0 %
$2,308 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
$2,212 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
$3,338 Vol.
<1%
5,0-6,0 %
$2,290 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
$3,762 Vol.
<1%
7,0 %+
$2,844 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections and OECD forecasts place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9–1.0% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid greater-than-expected resilience in Q2 data and defense-related spending despite the Middle East energy shock. Elevated energy prices have driven headline inflation toward 3.0% and prompted the ECB to lift the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, tightening financial conditions and capping domestic demand. The labor market remains near historic lows with unemployment around 6.3%, yet employment growth has slowed. With official estimates clustered near the 1% threshold and risks balanced between persistent inflation pressures and export support from global demand, trader-implied probabilities remain closely split between the 0–1.0% and 1.0–2.0% ranges.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$53,835Date de fin
1 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections and OECD forecasts place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9–1.0% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid greater-than-expected resilience in Q2 data and defense-related spending despite the Middle East energy shock. Elevated energy prices have driven headline inflation toward 3.0% and prompted the ECB to lift the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, tightening financial conditions and capping domestic demand. The labor market remains near historic lows with unemployment around 6.3%, yet employment growth has slowed. With official estimates clustered near the 1% threshold and risks balanced between persistent inflation pressures and export support from global demand, trader-implied probabilities remain closely split between the 0–1.0% and 1.0–2.0% ranges.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$53,835Date de fin
1 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections and OECD forecasts place eurozone real GDP growth at 0.9–1.0% for 2026, revised modestly higher from June amid greater-than-expected resilience in Q2 data and defense-related spending despite the Middle East energy shock. Elevated energy prices have driven headline inflation toward 3.0% and prompted the ECB to lift the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, tightening financial conditions and capping domestic demand. The labor market remains near historic lows with unemployment around 6.3%, yet employment growth has slowed. With official estimates clustered near the 1% threshold and risks balanced between persistent inflation pressures and export support from global demand, trader-implied probabilities remain closely split between the 0–1.0% and 1.0–2.0% ranges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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