Subdued quarterly momentum and downward revisions to growth projections position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and Conference Board cluster around 0.8-1.0%, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter followed by a modest 0.4% rebound in Q2 amid energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions. Leading indicators such as PMI readings below 50 and weak industrial output reinforce expectations of below-trend expansion. Traders appear to price in limited upside from domestic demand or fiscal support, with upcoming Q3 data releases and ECB policy signals likely to influence any shifts in these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 66.7%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.2%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,816 Vol.
$28,816 Vol.
<0 %
4%
0-1,0 %
67%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 66.7%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.2%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,816 Vol.
$28,816 Vol.
<0 %
4%
0-1,0 %
67%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0 %+
<1%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Subdued quarterly momentum and downward revisions to growth projections position the 0-1.0% range as the dominant market-implied outcome for Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and Conference Board cluster around 0.8-1.0%, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter followed by a modest 0.4% rebound in Q2 amid energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions. Leading indicators such as PMI readings below 50 and weak industrial output reinforce expectations of below-trend expansion. Traders appear to price in limited upside from domestic demand or fiscal support, with upcoming Q3 data releases and ECB policy signals likely to influence any shifts in these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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