Recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts have anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around modest Eurozone expansion for 2026. Official projections from the IMF, OECD, and ECB now cluster at 0.8–0.9 percent annual GDP growth, reflecting Q1 contraction followed by a better-than-expected 0.4 percent Q2 quarterly gain that still leaves year-over-year momentum subdued near 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds—including elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, external tariff pressures, and tepid domestic demand—continue to weigh on the outlook despite resilient labor markets and recent de-escalation signals. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0–1.0 percent band at 66.8 percent, consistent with these data releases, while probabilities above 2.0 percent remain minimal. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation prints and ECB communications that could shift rate expectations and growth trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 66.9%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 5.9%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
6%
0-1,0 %
67%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
1%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 66.9%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 5.9%
4,0-5,0 % <1%
$28,764 Vol.
$28,764 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
$1,615 Vol.
6%
0-1,0 %
$10,688 Vol.
67%
1,0-2,0 %
$6,957 Vol.
25%
2,0-3,0 %
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
3,0-4,0 %
$1,027 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
$2,108 Vol.
1%
5,0-6,0 %
$1,127 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
$2,544 Vol.
1%
7,0 %+
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts have anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around modest Eurozone expansion for 2026. Official projections from the IMF, OECD, and ECB now cluster at 0.8–0.9 percent annual GDP growth, reflecting Q1 contraction followed by a better-than-expected 0.4 percent Q2 quarterly gain that still leaves year-over-year momentum subdued near 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds—including elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, external tariff pressures, and tepid domestic demand—continue to weigh on the outlook despite resilient labor markets and recent de-escalation signals. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0–1.0 percent band at 66.8 percent, consistent with these data releases, while probabilities above 2.0 percent remain minimal. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation prints and ECB communications that could shift rate expectations and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$28,764Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts have anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around modest Eurozone expansion for 2026. Official projections from the IMF, OECD, and ECB now cluster at 0.8–0.9 percent annual GDP growth, reflecting Q1 contraction followed by a better-than-expected 0.4 percent Q2 quarterly gain that still leaves year-over-year momentum subdued near 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds—including elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, external tariff pressures, and tepid domestic demand—continue to weigh on the outlook despite resilient labor markets and recent de-escalation signals. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0–1.0 percent band at 66.8 percent, consistent with these data releases, while probabilities above 2.0 percent remain minimal. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation prints and ECB communications that could shift rate expectations and growth trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,764Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts have anchored Polymarket trader sentiment around modest Eurozone expansion for 2026. Official projections from the IMF, OECD, and ECB now cluster at 0.8–0.9 percent annual GDP growth, reflecting Q1 contraction followed by a better-than-expected 0.4 percent Q2 quarterly gain that still leaves year-over-year momentum subdued near 1.0 percent. Persistent headwinds—including elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, external tariff pressures, and tepid domestic demand—continue to weigh on the outlook despite resilient labor markets and recent de-escalation signals. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0–1.0 percent band at 66.8 percent, consistent with these data releases, while probabilities above 2.0 percent remain minimal. Key upcoming catalysts include further inflation prints and ECB communications that could shift rate expectations and growth trajectories.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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