Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en octobre ?
Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
Aucun changement 67%
Hausse de 25 points de base 32%
Baisse de 25 points de base 3.4%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$1,466,109 Vol.
$1,466,109 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
3%
Aucun changement
67%
Hausse de 25 points de base
32%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Aucun changement 67%
Hausse de 25 points de base 32%
Baisse de 25 points de base 3.4%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$1,466,109 Vol.
$1,466,109 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$242,159 Vol.
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$554,634 Vol.
3%
Aucun changement
$231,992 Vol.
67%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$273,430 Vol.
32%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$163,894 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,466,109Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,466,109Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing 3.4% year-over-year inflation and 2.5% core, paired with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate and solid August payroll gains, have anchored trader consensus around no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Elevated readings above the 2% target, alongside earlier energy-driven pressures, support the Fed's hawkish June projections where multiple officials signaled openness to hikes if inflation persists. This data-dependent path, reinforced in recent minutes, explains the 66.5% implied probability for unchanged rates and 31.5% for a 25 basis point increase, while near-zero odds for cuts reflect limited downside risks in current conditions. The August CPI release on September 11 and September FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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