The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s oversight of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project in April 2026, without charges, underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability that he will not face imprisonment before 2027. That inquiry, opened earlier in the year over cost overruns, ended without indictments as the Fed inspector general assumed review, removing the only active legal overhang. Powell’s chairmanship concluded in May 2026, yet he retains his Board seat through January 2028 amid standard institutional protections and the absence of further regulatory actions or congressional referrals. While tail-risk scenarios such as a novel investigation or extraordinary political pressure remain theoretically possible, they lack precedent or current catalysts that would alter the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing.