The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$289,613 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
4,8 %
68%
5,0 %
18%
5,2 %
8%
5,5 %
6%
5,7 %
5%
6,0 %
4%
$289,613 Vol.
4,8 %
$60,422 Vol.
68%
5,0 %
$82,723 Vol.
18%
5,2 %
$26,427 Vol.
8%
5,5 %
$5,918 Vol.
6%
5,7 %
$4,298 Vol.
5%
6,0 %
$3,539 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$289,613Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$289,613Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.67–4.73% in late August 2026, reflects market-implied expectations for a higher neutral policy rate amid resilient growth and sticky inflation pressures. Under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank has adopted a more hawkish stance, with futures pricing reduced odds of near-term easing and potential hikes if August CPI and nonfarm payrolls data due in early September exceed forecasts. Elevated fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury coupon supply, and a firmer term premium have also lifted long-end yields, while AI-driven productivity gains support higher real rates. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, with updated projections, and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could push yields toward or beyond the 2026 high of 4.75% before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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