Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQuel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
Quel sera le rendement du Trésor à 10 ans avant 2027 ?
$289,613 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
4,8 %
68%
5,0 %
18%
5,2 %
8%
5,5 %
6%
5,7 %
5%
6,0 %
4%
$289,613 Vol.
4,8 %
$60,422 Vol.
68%
5,0 %
$82,723 Vol.
18%
5,2 %
$26,427 Vol.
8%
5,5 %
$5,918 Vol.
6%
5,7 %
$4,298 Vol.
5%
6,0 %
$3,539 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$289,613Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$289,613Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent 10-year Treasury yields near 4.7% reflect elevated market-implied expectations for the federal funds rate path amid sticky inflation, with July core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year and the Fed holding its target range at 3.50–3.75%. Hawkish communications from new Chair Kevin Warsh, including signals that financial conditions are not yet sufficiently restrictive, have lifted rate-hike probabilities for the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and pushed real yields and term premium higher. Strong AI-related capital spending and productivity growth are supporting higher long-run rate expectations, while persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury supply add upward pressure on long-end yields. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI releases, and the September dot plot, which could shift trader consensus on the neutral rate and peak yield levels before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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