Recent U.S. economic data, including softer July employment figures and a subdued CPI print, have kept the implied probability of any 2026 federal funds rate hike near even at roughly 48.5% for "Yes," as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against a cooling labor market. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions and inflation readings above the 2% goal. Market pricing via fed funds futures and CME FedWatch reflects this balance, with the June SEP median projecting one 25 basis point hike by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and employment releases, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the policy path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
49% chance
$7,604,378 Vol.
$7,604,378 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Oui
49% chance
$7,604,378 Vol.
$7,604,378 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. economic data, including softer July employment figures and a subdued CPI print, have kept the implied probability of any 2026 federal funds rate hike near even at roughly 48.5% for "Yes," as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against a cooling labor market. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions and inflation readings above the 2% goal. Market pricing via fed funds futures and CME FedWatch reflects this balance, with the June SEP median projecting one 25 basis point hike by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and employment releases, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,604,378Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. economic data, including softer July employment figures and a subdued CPI print, have kept the implied probability of any 2026 federal funds rate hike near even at roughly 48.5% for "Yes," as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against a cooling labor market. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions and inflation readings above the 2% goal. Market pricing via fed funds futures and CME FedWatch reflects this balance, with the June SEP median projecting one 25 basis point hike by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and employment releases, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,604,378Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data, including softer July employment figures and a subdued CPI print, have kept the implied probability of any 2026 federal funds rate hike near even at roughly 48.5% for "Yes," as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against a cooling labor market. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026 amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions and inflation readings above the 2% goal. Market pricing via fed funds futures and CME FedWatch reflects this balance, with the June SEP median projecting one 25 basis point hike by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and associated dot plot, alongside upcoming CPI and employment releases, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the policy path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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