Persistent inflation, recently hitting 4.2% CPI in May amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with solid May jobs gains, has shifted trader focus toward potential 2026 tightening at the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but featured a dot plot where a majority of participants now project at least one hike by year-end, aligning with futures-implied odds near 66% for a 25-basis-point move. This balances against economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026 and the Fed's preference for data-dependent pauses. Key near-term catalysts include the July CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the next FOMC projections that could clarify whether inflation trajectory or labor resilience tips the path toward hikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,993,634 Vol.
$2,993,634 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
$2,993,634 Vol.
$2,993,634 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, recently hitting 4.2% CPI in May amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with solid May jobs gains, has shifted trader focus toward potential 2026 tightening at the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but featured a dot plot where a majority of participants now project at least one hike by year-end, aligning with futures-implied odds near 66% for a 25-basis-point move. This balances against economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026 and the Fed's preference for data-dependent pauses. Key near-term catalysts include the July CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the next FOMC projections that could clarify whether inflation trajectory or labor resilience tips the path toward hikes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,993,634Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation, recently hitting 4.2% CPI in May amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with solid May jobs gains, has shifted trader focus toward potential 2026 tightening at the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but featured a dot plot where a majority of participants now project at least one hike by year-end, aligning with futures-implied odds near 66% for a 25-basis-point move. This balances against economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026 and the Fed's preference for data-dependent pauses. Key near-term catalysts include the July CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the next FOMC projections that could clarify whether inflation trajectory or labor resilience tips the path toward hikes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,993,645Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation, recently hitting 4.2% CPI in May amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with solid May jobs gains, has shifted trader focus toward potential 2026 tightening at the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but featured a dot plot where a majority of participants now project at least one hike by year-end, aligning with futures-implied odds near 66% for a 25-basis-point move. This balances against economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026 and the Fed's preference for data-dependent pauses. Key near-term catalysts include the July CPI release, upcoming employment reports, and the next FOMC projections that could clarify whether inflation trajectory or labor resilience tips the path toward hikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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