Polymarket traders price a 48.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, with "Other" outcomes at 28.0% and select cut paths like Cut–Pause–Cut or Pause–Pause–Cut around 27.5%, signaling a closely contested outlook amid resilient economic conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—prompting the Fed to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 29–30 meeting, where officials projected just one cut for the year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs that month, supporting labor market strength. CME FedWatch aligns with over 95% odds of a June pause, but May 12 CPI and early-May jobs data loom as pivotal catalysts ahead of the June 16–17 session.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Other 24%
Cut–Pause–Cut 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
16%
Cut–Pause–Cut
20%
Cut–Cut–Pause
19%
Cut–Cut–Cut
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
19%
Pause–Cut–Pause
19%
Pause–Cut–Cut
19%
Other
24%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Other 24%
Cut–Pause–Cut 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$18 Vol.
16%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$18 Vol.
20%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$18 Vol.
19%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$21 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$19 Vol.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$18 Vol.
19%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$18 Vol.
19%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$18 Vol.
19%
Other
$18 Vol.
24%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 48.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, with "Other" outcomes at 28.0% and select cut paths like Cut–Pause–Cut or Pause–Pause–Cut around 27.5%, signaling a closely contested outlook amid resilient economic conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—prompting the Fed to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 29–30 meeting, where officials projected just one cut for the year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs that month, supporting labor market strength. CME FedWatch aligns with over 95% odds of a June pause, but May 12 CPI and early-May jobs data loom as pivotal catalysts ahead of the June 16–17 session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$164Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 48.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, with "Other" outcomes at 28.0% and select cut paths like Cut–Pause–Cut or Pause–Pause–Cut around 27.5%, signaling a closely contested outlook amid resilient economic conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—prompting the Fed to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 29–30 meeting, where officials projected just one cut for the year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs that month, supporting labor market strength. CME FedWatch aligns with over 95% odds of a June pause, but May 12 CPI and early-May jobs data loom as pivotal catalysts ahead of the June 16–17 session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$164Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 48.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings, with "Other" outcomes at 28.0% and select cut paths like Cut–Pause–Cut or Pause–Pause–Cut around 27.5%, signaling a closely contested outlook amid resilient economic conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—prompting the Fed to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 29–30 meeting, where officials projected just one cut for the year. Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs that month, supporting labor market strength. CME FedWatch aligns with over 95% odds of a June pause, but May 12 CPI and early-May jobs data loom as pivotal catalysts ahead of the June 16–17 session.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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