Traders see the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% and Other at 49% as reflecting uncertainty over whether the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range through September or shift toward hikes amid sticky inflation. The July 29 decision to hold rates, backed by a 9-3 vote despite three dissents, reinforced pause expectations following June’s meeting, yet hotter-than-anticipated price data and the median dot-plot projection for at least one 2026 increase have kept hike scenarios in play. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September, market-implied odds hinge on incoming CPI prints, labor-market readings, and any signals from Chair Kevin Warsh on the policy framework, leaving limited scope for a cut priced at just 0.9%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,311 Vol.
$676,311 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,311 Vol.
$676,311 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$269,813 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$59,046 Vol.
1%
Other
$291,576 Vol.
49%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% and Other at 49% as reflecting uncertainty over whether the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range through September or shift toward hikes amid sticky inflation. The July 29 decision to hold rates, backed by a 9-3 vote despite three dissents, reinforced pause expectations following June’s meeting, yet hotter-than-anticipated price data and the median dot-plot projection for at least one 2026 increase have kept hike scenarios in play. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September, market-implied odds hinge on incoming CPI prints, labor-market readings, and any signals from Chair Kevin Warsh on the policy framework, leaving limited scope for a cut priced at just 0.9%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$676,311Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% and Other at 49% as reflecting uncertainty over whether the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range through September or shift toward hikes amid sticky inflation. The July 29 decision to hold rates, backed by a 9-3 vote despite three dissents, reinforced pause expectations following June’s meeting, yet hotter-than-anticipated price data and the median dot-plot projection for at least one 2026 increase have kept hike scenarios in play. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September, market-implied odds hinge on incoming CPI prints, labor-market readings, and any signals from Chair Kevin Warsh on the policy framework, leaving limited scope for a cut priced at just 0.9%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$676,311Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% and Other at 49% as reflecting uncertainty over whether the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain its current 3.50–3.75% target range through September or shift toward hikes amid sticky inflation. The July 29 decision to hold rates, backed by a 9-3 vote despite three dissents, reinforced pause expectations following June’s meeting, yet hotter-than-anticipated price data and the median dot-plot projection for at least one 2026 increase have kept hike scenarios in play. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September, market-implied odds hinge on incoming CPI prints, labor-market readings, and any signals from Chair Kevin Warsh on the policy framework, leaving limited scope for a cut priced at just 0.9%.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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