Elevated inflation, with the latest PCE readings near 4.1% overall and 3.4% core amid Middle East-driven energy pressures, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment, has anchored the Fed's restrictive stance at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target under Chair Kevin Warsh. The July 29 hold, marked by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the abandonment of forward guidance, shifted trader focus toward data-dependent outcomes for the September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings. This environment positions sequences involving hikes or mixed moves—captured in the 69% "Other" share—as the dominant market-implied path, while pure Pause-Pause-Pause retains 31% support from economists expecting patience through year-end absent reacceleration in prices. Upcoming CPI and employment releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 68%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$738,466 Vol.
$738,466 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
31%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
68%
Other 68%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$738,466 Vol.
$738,466 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$247,041 Vol.
31%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,252 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,879 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,800 Vol.
<1%
Other
$317,006 Vol.
68%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, with the latest PCE readings near 4.1% overall and 3.4% core amid Middle East-driven energy pressures, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment, has anchored the Fed's restrictive stance at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target under Chair Kevin Warsh. The July 29 hold, marked by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the abandonment of forward guidance, shifted trader focus toward data-dependent outcomes for the September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings. This environment positions sequences involving hikes or mixed moves—captured in the 69% "Other" share—as the dominant market-implied path, while pure Pause-Pause-Pause retains 31% support from economists expecting patience through year-end absent reacceleration in prices. Upcoming CPI and employment releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$738,466Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, with the latest PCE readings near 4.1% overall and 3.4% core amid Middle East-driven energy pressures, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment, has anchored the Fed's restrictive stance at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target under Chair Kevin Warsh. The July 29 hold, marked by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the abandonment of forward guidance, shifted trader focus toward data-dependent outcomes for the September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings. This environment positions sequences involving hikes or mixed moves—captured in the 69% "Other" share—as the dominant market-implied path, while pure Pause-Pause-Pause retains 31% support from economists expecting patience through year-end absent reacceleration in prices. Upcoming CPI and employment releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$738,466Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, with the latest PCE readings near 4.1% overall and 3.4% core amid Middle East-driven energy pressures, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment, has anchored the Fed's restrictive stance at the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target under Chair Kevin Warsh. The July 29 hold, marked by three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and the abandonment of forward guidance, shifted trader focus toward data-dependent outcomes for the September 15-16 and October 27-28 meetings. This environment positions sequences involving hikes or mixed moves—captured in the 69% "Other" share—as the dominant market-implied path, while pure Pause-Pause-Pause retains 31% support from economists expecting patience through year-end absent reacceleration in prices. Upcoming CPI and employment releases remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
56%
La Fed effectuera-t-elle une hausse–pause–hausse lors des trois prochaines décisions (septembre–octobre–décembre) ?
23%
Oui
N'y aura-t-il aucun changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion d'octobre 2026 ?
71%
Oui
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