Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 67.5% implied probability to "Other" outcomes for the July–October FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 31%. Persistent core PCE above the 2% target, energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions, and solid GDP and employment data have shifted consensus away from rate cuts toward holds or modest hikes. The July decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% reinforced this view, as markets now price limited easing through year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh CPI and payrolls releases, remain key swing factors that could alter the current trader sentiment backed by real capital at risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 68%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$738,472 Vol.
$738,472 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
31%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
68%
Other 68%
Pause–Pause–Pause 31%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$738,472 Vol.
$738,472 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$247,041 Vol.
31%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,252 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,879 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,800 Vol.
<1%
Other
$317,012 Vol.
68%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 67.5% implied probability to "Other" outcomes for the July–October FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 31%. Persistent core PCE above the 2% target, energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions, and solid GDP and employment data have shifted consensus away from rate cuts toward holds or modest hikes. The July decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% reinforced this view, as markets now price limited easing through year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh CPI and payrolls releases, remain key swing factors that could alter the current trader sentiment backed by real capital at risk.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$738,472Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 67.5% implied probability to "Other" outcomes for the July–October FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 31%. Persistent core PCE above the 2% target, energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions, and solid GDP and employment data have shifted consensus away from rate cuts toward holds or modest hikes. The July decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% reinforced this view, as markets now price limited easing through year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh CPI and payrolls releases, remain key swing factors that could alter the current trader sentiment backed by real capital at risk.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$738,472Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 67.5% implied probability to "Other" outcomes for the July–October FOMC meetings, with Pause–Pause–Pause at 31%. Persistent core PCE above the 2% target, energy-price pressures from geopolitical tensions, and solid GDP and employment data have shifted consensus away from rate cuts toward holds or modest hikes. The July decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% reinforced this view, as markets now price limited easing through year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh CPI and payrolls releases, remain key swing factors that could alter the current trader sentiment backed by real capital at risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
55%
La Fed effectuera-t-elle une hausse–pause–hausse lors des trois prochaines décisions (septembre–octobre–décembre) ?
24%
Oui
N'y aura-t-il aucun changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion d'octobre 2026 ?
71%
Oui
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