Skip to main content

Pour trader aux États-Unis, va sur polymarket.us

icon for Fed Decision in December?
Économie·FED

Fed Decision in December?

icon for Fed Decision in December?
Économie·FED

Fed Decision in December?

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

janv. 27, 2027

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

janv. 27, 2027

25 bps increase 56%

Aucun changement 40%

50+ bps increase 4.0%

25 bps decrease 3.4%

Polymarket

$687,464 Vol.

25 bps increase 56%

Aucun changement 40%

50+ bps increase 4.0%

25 bps decrease 3.4%

Polymarket

$687,464 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$102,808 Vol.

1%

25 bps decrease

$155,944 Vol.

3%

Aucun changement

$136,748 Vol.

40%

25 bps increase

$187,162 Vol.

56%

50+ bps increase

$104,802 Vol.

4%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,464
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hotter-than-expected August 2026 CPI data, showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline increase alongside energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish communications and the removal of dovish forward guidance, underpins the 55.5% probability for a hike versus 39.5% for no change. With the federal funds rate currently at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in tighter policy to address supply shocks and solid economic activity. The September 15-16 FOMC decision and dot plot, along with September CPI and labor data, represent key near-term catalysts that could alter the path to December.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,464
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

59%
icon for N'y aura-t-il aucun changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion d'octobre 2026 ?

N'y aura-t-il aucun changement dans les taux d'intérêt de la Fed après la réunion d'octobre 2026 ?

62%
Oui
icon for La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

78%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Fed Decision in December? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 25 bps increase » à 56%, suivi de « Aucun changement » à 40%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 56¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Fed Decision in December? » a généré $687.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 29, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Fed Decision in December? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Fed Decision in December? » est « 25 bps increase » à 56%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Aucun changement » à 40%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Fed Decision in December? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.