Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,294,030 Vol.

Réunion de septembre
29%

Réunion d'octobre
39%
$2,294,030 Vol.

Réunion de septembre
29%

Réunion d'octobre
39%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflationary pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike, currently hovering near 50-70% for September depending on the latest futures pricing. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in its July 29 meeting by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report has tempered expectations, while upcoming August CPI and employment data will shape September policy bets. Traders are monitoring these releases alongside any shifts in Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on whether tightening will resume before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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