Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence across the Federal Reserve’s April through July FOMC meetings, underscoring broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain the current federal funds rate target amid sticky inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment data have supported this steady policy stance, with market participants pricing in limited near-term easing despite ongoing data dependence. This outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of monetary policy continuity. A sharper economic slowdown or material downside surprise in upcoming inflation or payroll figures could still shift expectations toward earlier cuts and challenge the prevailing positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.9%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.2%
$54,187 Vol.
$54,187 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,967 Vol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence across the Federal Reserve’s April through July FOMC meetings, underscoring broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain the current federal funds rate target amid sticky inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment data have supported this steady policy stance, with market participants pricing in limited near-term easing despite ongoing data dependence. This outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of monetary policy continuity. A sharper economic slowdown or material downside surprise in upcoming inflation or payroll figures could still shift expectations toward earlier cuts and challenge the prevailing positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$54,187Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence across the Federal Reserve’s April through July FOMC meetings, underscoring broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain the current federal funds rate target amid sticky inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment data have supported this steady policy stance, with market participants pricing in limited near-term easing despite ongoing data dependence. This outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of monetary policy continuity. A sharper economic slowdown or material downside surprise in upcoming inflation or payroll figures could still shift expectations toward earlier cuts and challenge the prevailing positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$54,187Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign a 92.5% probability to a pause-pause-pause sequence across the Federal Reserve’s April through July FOMC meetings, underscoring broad trader consensus that the central bank will maintain the current federal funds rate target amid sticky inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Recent CPI and employment data have supported this steady policy stance, with market participants pricing in limited near-term easing despite ongoing data dependence. This outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs assessments of monetary policy continuity. A sharper economic slowdown or material downside surprise in upcoming inflation or payroll figures could still shift expectations toward earlier cuts and challenge the prevailing positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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