Recent May 2026 CPI prints showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core prices near 2.9%, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3%, have driven the 99.4% market-implied odds for Pause-Pause-Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, traders see no basis for near-term easing given inflation well above the 2% target. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent data releases on prices and employment represent key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or material labor-market softening could still shift pricing, though current conditions make such outcomes unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 99.4%
Autre <1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse <1%
$1,775,051 Vol.
$1,775,051 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
99%
Autre
<1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
<1%
Pause–pause–pause 99.4%
Autre <1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse <1%
$1,775,051 Vol.
$1,775,051 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
$318,492 Vol.
99%
Autre
$362,452 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$348,766 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI prints showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core prices near 2.9%, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3%, have driven the 99.4% market-implied odds for Pause-Pause-Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, traders see no basis for near-term easing given inflation well above the 2% target. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent data releases on prices and employment represent key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or material labor-market softening could still shift pricing, though current conditions make such outcomes unlikely.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,775,051Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI prints showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core prices near 2.9%, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3%, have driven the 99.4% market-implied odds for Pause-Pause-Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, traders see no basis for near-term easing given inflation well above the 2% target. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent data releases on prices and employment represent key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or material labor-market softening could still shift pricing, though current conditions make such outcomes unlikely.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,775,051Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 CPI prints showing headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year and core prices near 2.9%, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3%, have driven the 99.4% market-implied odds for Pause-Pause-Pause across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.62%, traders see no basis for near-term easing given inflation well above the 2% target. The June 16-17 meeting and subsequent data releases on prices and employment represent key near-term catalysts. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or material labor-market softening could still shift pricing, though current conditions make such outcomes unlikely.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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