The Fed has maintained its federal funds rate target range at 3.50–3.75 percent across the March and April 2026 FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation readings near 3 percent core PCE and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply risks. Minutes and statements emphasize a data-dependent stance, with participants noting balanced risks to the dual mandate and limited scope for easing while inflation remains above target and the labor market shows only modest softening at unemployment near 4.3–4.4 percent. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing negligible probability of a cut by mid-year given the central bank’s focus on credibility and recent communications projecting at most one modest reduction later in 2026. The June 16–17 meeting represents the final near-term catalyst, though a material downside surprise in inflation or employment data would be required to shift the hold bias.