Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 5.0%
Autre 1.8%
Pause–Baisse–Pause <1%
$975,680 Vol.
$975,680 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
5%
Autre
2%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
<1%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
<1%
Pause–pause–pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 5.0%
Autre 1.8%
Pause–Baisse–Pause <1%
$975,680 Vol.
$975,680 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
$37,371 Vol.
94%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$18,611 Vol.
5%
Autre
$219,605 Vol.
2%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
$177,214 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
$522,879 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$975,680Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$975,680Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—anchored by the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75%, with the updated dot plot projecting just one cut for all of 2026, likely later. This strong consensus reflects resilient labor markets, with unemployment holding near 4.3% and low jobless claims, alongside sticky March CPI inflation released April 10 that diminished near-term easing odds on CME FedWatch tools. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the next catalyst, but a shift would require sharp downside surprises like cooling inflation or weakening employment data to challenge the hold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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