The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial borrowing headroom that Bipartisan Policy Center projections indicate will last until at least late winter or mid-summer 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures extending that timeline further. Congress has modified or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically to meet existing obligations, consistently prioritizing avoidance of default due to risks of market disruption and higher borrowing costs. Current debt levels remain well below the new ceiling, and no legislative or procedural developments in the past year signal imminent breakdown in the reconciliation or appropriations process. Trader consensus at 94.8% for no default by 2027 reflects this legislative buffer and established pattern of timely congressional action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Les États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Oui
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$15,070 Vol.
$15,070 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial borrowing headroom that Bipartisan Policy Center projections indicate will last until at least late winter or mid-summer 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures extending that timeline further. Congress has modified or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically to meet existing obligations, consistently prioritizing avoidance of default due to risks of market disruption and higher borrowing costs. Current debt levels remain well below the new ceiling, and no legislative or procedural developments in the past year signal imminent breakdown in the reconciliation or appropriations process. Trader consensus at 94.8% for no default by 2027 reflects this legislative buffer and established pattern of timely congressional action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$15,070Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial borrowing headroom that Bipartisan Policy Center projections indicate will last until at least late winter or mid-summer 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures extending that timeline further. Congress has modified or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically to meet existing obligations, consistently prioritizing avoidance of default due to risks of market disruption and higher borrowing costs. Current debt levels remain well below the new ceiling, and no legislative or procedural developments in the past year signal imminent breakdown in the reconciliation or appropriations process. Trader consensus at 94.8% for no default by 2027 reflects this legislative buffer and established pattern of timely congressional action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,070Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial borrowing headroom that Bipartisan Policy Center projections indicate will last until at least late winter or mid-summer 2027, with Treasury extraordinary measures extending that timeline further. Congress has modified or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically to meet existing obligations, consistently prioritizing avoidance of default due to risks of market disruption and higher borrowing costs. Current debt levels remain well below the new ceiling, and no legislative or procedural developments in the past year signal imminent breakdown in the reconciliation or appropriations process. Trader consensus at 94.8% for no default by 2027 reflects this legislative buffer and established pattern of timely congressional action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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