**Recent diplomatic progress toward a ceasefire extension has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027.** After U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, 2026, and a fragile April ceasefire, the sides exchanged further strikes in early June amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. By June 14–15, however, U.S. and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding—set for formal signing June 19—that lifts the U.S. naval blockade, reopens the strait, ends related hostilities in Lebanon, and launches a 60-day negotiation window on remaining nuclear issues. President Trump has signaled willingness to resume strikes only if talks collapse, while both governments emphasize sanctions relief and asset releases as part of the framework. These verified developments, alongside the absence of announced ground operations despite earlier troop buildups, explain the 87.5% "No" consensus reflected in current market pricing.