Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. On June 14, 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to formally end hostilities from the 2026 conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reducing regional U.S. military assets, and advancing 60-day nuclear talks. The deal follows February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, a spring ceasefire, and early June exchanges of missiles and drones involving U.S. forces, Iranian proxies, and Israeli responses. With formal signing scheduled for June 19 and no verified U.S. preparations for large-scale troop deployment or regime-change operations, the current trajectory favors negotiated de-escalation over invasion within the remaining months of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
Les États-Unis envahiront-ils l'Iran avant 2027 ?
Oui
$37,746,926 Vol.
$37,746,926 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$37,746,926 Vol.
$37,746,926 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. On June 14, 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to formally end hostilities from the 2026 conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reducing regional U.S. military assets, and advancing 60-day nuclear talks. The deal follows February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, a spring ceasefire, and early June exchanges of missiles and drones involving U.S. forces, Iranian proxies, and Israeli responses. With formal signing scheduled for June 19 and no verified U.S. preparations for large-scale troop deployment or regime-change operations, the current trajectory favors negotiated de-escalation over invasion within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Volume
$37,746,926Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. On June 14, 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to formally end hostilities from the 2026 conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reducing regional U.S. military assets, and advancing 60-day nuclear talks. The deal follows February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, a spring ceasefire, and early June exchanges of missiles and drones involving U.S. forces, Iranian proxies, and Israeli responses. With formal signing scheduled for June 19 and no verified U.S. preparations for large-scale troop deployment or regime-change operations, the current trajectory favors negotiated de-escalation over invasion within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$37,746,978Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. On June 14, 2026, mediators announced a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to formally end hostilities from the 2026 conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, reducing regional U.S. military assets, and advancing 60-day nuclear talks. The deal follows February U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, a spring ceasefire, and early June exchanges of missiles and drones involving U.S. forces, Iranian proxies, and Israeli responses. With formal signing scheduled for June 19 and no verified U.S. preparations for large-scale troop deployment or regime-change operations, the current trajectory favors negotiated de-escalation over invasion within the remaining months of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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