Recent diplomatic progress following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has shifted focus toward de-escalation. A temporary ceasefire took effect in April, followed by direct talks in Islamabad and a June 15 memorandum of understanding that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending related hostilities in Lebanon, limited sanctions relief, and a 60-day framework for addressing Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. has lifted its naval blockade while warning that strikes could resume without further compliance, yet no ground operations or full-scale invasion have materialized. These developments, combined with ongoing negotiations ahead of an expected signing around June 19, underpin traders' strong consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027.