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icon for Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ?
Politique·Mojtaba

Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ?

icon for Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ?
Politique·Mojtaba

Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ?

$24,521,858 Vol.

30 sept. 2026
Polymarket

$24,521,858 Vol.

Polymarket

30 septembre

$557,407 Vol.

3%

31 octobre

$62,406 Vol.

6%

30 novembre

$32,862 Vol.

9%

31 décembre

$4,326,686 Vol.

16%

30 juin 2027

$255,360 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of September 2026, Iran's supreme leadership has already undergone a major transition.** Ali Khamenei was killed in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, triggering the constitutional interim leadership council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi) and a swift March election by the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son with strong IRGC ties, was selected as the new supreme leader. Ongoing war pressures, his limited public visibility, and unverified health reports have fueled speculation about stability, though Iranian officials describe him as fully engaged and in good health. Key variables for any further change include the trajectory of the conflict, IRGC influence, clerical consensus, and potential external targeting of leadership. No scheduled elections or formal processes for additional succession are currently set.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,521,858
Date de fin
1 juil. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of September 2026, Iran's supreme leadership has already undergone a major transition.** Ali Khamenei was killed in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, triggering the constitutional interim leadership council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi) and a swift March election by the Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son with strong IRGC ties, was selected as the new supreme leader. Ongoing war pressures, his limited public visibility, and unverified health reports have fueled speculation about stability, though Iranian officials describe him as fully engaged and in good health. Key variables for any further change include the trajectory of the conflict, IRGC influence, clerical consensus, and potential external targeting of leadership. No scheduled elections or formal processes for additional succession are currently set.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,521,858
Date de fin
1 juil. 2027
Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Connexes

icon for Mojtaba Khamenei vu en public d'ici le 31 décembre ?

Mojtaba Khamenei vu en public d'ici le 31 décembre ?

22%
Oui
icon for Mojtaba Khamenei sera-t-il chef d'État en Iran fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei sera-t-il chef d'État en Iran fin 2026 ?

83%
Oui
icon for Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l’Iran en 2026 ?

Reza Pahlavi dirigera-t-il l’Iran en 2026 ?

3%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 14 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 juin 2027 » à 26%, suivi de « 31 décembre » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 26¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 26% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ? » a généré $24.5 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 8, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ? », parcourez les 14 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ? » est « 30 juin 2027 » à 26%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 26% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 décembre » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Changement de leadership en Iran d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.