**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in early March 2026 as Supreme Leader following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes.** He has remained unseen in public since the appointment amid reports of injuries sustained in the attack, prompting questions about his health and day-to-day authority. Iranian officials maintain that he retains ultimate decision-making power, exercised from secure locations, while the IRGC and senior clerics have consolidated influence over security, foreign policy, and daily governance during the ongoing conflict. The wartime emergency process and institutional continuity have kept short-term change probabilities low in trader assessments, though longer-horizon markets reflect greater uncertainty tied to potential health developments, internal power shifts, or escalation in hostilities through 2027.