The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,950,400 Vol.
$2,950,400 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$2,950,400 Vol.
$2,950,400 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,950,400Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$2,950,400Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—anchored in the January 2026 national emergency declaration, oil-supply tariffs, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro—has intensified economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation without triggering military action. Cuba’s resulting fuel shortages, blackouts, and prisoner releases reflect concessions under duress rather than battlefield developments. U.S. officials have repeatedly framed regime change as achievable through a “deal” or “friendly takeover,” while military assets positioned in the Caribbean remain tied to sanctions enforcement and surveillance. With no major escalation or authorization for invasion by mid-2026, and analysts citing substantial operational costs absent a triggering incident, trader consensus assigns the “No” outcome a 77.5% implied probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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