The U.S. administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including the January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, sanctions on oil suppliers and Cuban military entities, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro, has driven the 93% “No” consensus by prioritizing economic coercion and regime alteration over invasion. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks and efforts to identify Cuban figures for a negotiated transition, modeled on Venezuela developments, reinforce this approach amid resource strains from the Iran conflict. Official statements emphasize diplomatic solutions as the preference while keeping military options available, with no observed large-scale troop deployments or staging for territorial control. Traders interpret these patterns, alongside Cuba’s confirmed negotiations and prisoner releases, as evidence that full invasion remains improbable through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
$3,256,312 Vol.
$3,256,312 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
$3,256,312 Vol.
$3,256,312 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including the January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, sanctions on oil suppliers and Cuban military entities, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro, has driven the 93% “No” consensus by prioritizing economic coercion and regime alteration over invasion. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks and efforts to identify Cuban figures for a negotiated transition, modeled on Venezuela developments, reinforce this approach amid resource strains from the Iran conflict. Official statements emphasize diplomatic solutions as the preference while keeping military options available, with no observed large-scale troop deployments or staging for territorial control. Traders interpret these patterns, alongside Cuba’s confirmed negotiations and prisoner releases, as evidence that full invasion remains improbable through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,256,312Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including the January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, sanctions on oil suppliers and Cuban military entities, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro, has driven the 93% “No” consensus by prioritizing economic coercion and regime alteration over invasion. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks and efforts to identify Cuban figures for a negotiated transition, modeled on Venezuela developments, reinforce this approach amid resource strains from the Iran conflict. Official statements emphasize diplomatic solutions as the preference while keeping military options available, with no observed large-scale troop deployments or staging for territorial control. Traders interpret these patterns, alongside Cuba’s confirmed negotiations and prisoner releases, as evidence that full invasion remains improbable through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,256,312Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. administration’s maximum pressure campaign, including the January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order, sanctions on oil suppliers and Cuban military entities, and the May indictment of Raúl Castro, has driven the 93% “No” consensus by prioritizing economic coercion and regime alteration over invasion. Recent August sanctions targeting arms procurement networks and efforts to identify Cuban figures for a negotiated transition, modeled on Venezuela developments, reinforce this approach amid resource strains from the Iran conflict. Official statements emphasize diplomatic solutions as the preference while keeping military options available, with no observed large-scale troop deployments or staging for territorial control. Traders interpret these patterns, alongside Cuba’s confirmed negotiations and prisoner releases, as evidence that full invasion remains improbable through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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