**Trader consensus at 97.4% for "No" reflects the absence of any active U.S. plans or authorization for a military invasion of Mexican territory in 2026.** Despite ongoing tensions over fentanyl trafficking and cartel designations as foreign terrorist organizations, U.S. efforts have centered on border deployments of roughly 9,000 troops, intelligence sharing, and proposals for limited joint or supportive actions against labs—proposals that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected as violations of sovereignty. Bilateral exercises continue, but full-scale intervention faces structural barriers including deep economic interdependence, Mexican public opposition, congressional constraints, and the lack of a declared war or territorial objectives. Realistic shifts remain possible only through unforeseen escalation, such as direct attacks on U.S. personnel or a sudden policy reversal, though these appear remote given current diplomatic and military postures through year-end.