Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including the July breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, sustain trader caution around Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR. Multiple temporary civilian airspace closures occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, with a June Yemen-launched missile interception as one example. As of mid-August 2026, however, the airspace has remained open following those disruptions, supported by statements from Transportation Minister Miri Regev and limited international carrier resumption. Elevated EASA risk advisories through August 31 and recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in southern Lebanon, including August drone attacks and IDF strikes, represent the main near-term catalysts that could prompt a closure. Low implied probabilities reflect the absence of major new escalations in recent weeks despite persistent proxy threats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$27,277,920 Vol.
14 juil. 2026
31 août
4%
30 septembre
12%
$27,277,920 Vol.
31 août
$1,245,724 Vol.
4%
30 septembre
$316 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including the July breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, sustain trader caution around Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR. Multiple temporary civilian airspace closures occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, with a June Yemen-launched missile interception as one example. As of mid-August 2026, however, the airspace has remained open following those disruptions, supported by statements from Transportation Minister Miri Regev and limited international carrier resumption. Elevated EASA risk advisories through August 31 and recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in southern Lebanon, including August drone attacks and IDF strikes, represent the main near-term catalysts that could prompt a closure. Low implied probabilities reflect the absence of major new escalations in recent weeks despite persistent proxy threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,277,920Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including the July breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, sustain trader caution around Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR. Multiple temporary civilian airspace closures occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, with a June Yemen-launched missile interception as one example. As of mid-August 2026, however, the airspace has remained open following those disruptions, supported by statements from Transportation Minister Miri Regev and limited international carrier resumption. Elevated EASA risk advisories through August 31 and recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in southern Lebanon, including August drone attacks and IDF strikes, represent the main near-term catalysts that could prompt a closure. Low implied probabilities reflect the absence of major new escalations in recent weeks despite persistent proxy threats.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,277,920Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including the July breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, sustain trader caution around Israel’s Tel Aviv FIR. Multiple temporary civilian airspace closures occurred between February and July amid US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile/drone responses, with a June Yemen-launched missile interception as one example. As of mid-August 2026, however, the airspace has remained open following those disruptions, supported by statements from Transportation Minister Miri Regev and limited international carrier resumption. Elevated EASA risk advisories through August 31 and recent Israel-Hezbollah clashes in southern Lebanon, including August drone attacks and IDF strikes, represent the main near-term catalysts that could prompt a closure. Low implied probabilities reflect the absence of major new escalations in recent weeks despite persistent proxy threats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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