The Federal Reserve's century-old statutory foundation under the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, combined with stalled congressional efforts such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act introduced in March 2025, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability that the central bank will not be abolished before 2027. Recent Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as chair on May 14, 2026, further signals institutional continuity amid ongoing monetary policy decisions on inflation and interest rates. Traders price in the significant legislative and constitutional hurdles, including the need for supermajorities unlikely before the 2026 midterms. Tail risks remain low but could include an acute financial crisis prompting emergency reforms or rare executive action, though both face steep political, economic, and legal barriers.