**The closely matched probabilities across September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI outcome bins reflect elevated uncertainty following the August reading of 54.6 (down 1.0 point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus).** This marked the eighth straight month of expansion but showed clear moderation, with new orders falling 3.0 points to 53.7 and backlogs dropping 3.2 points to 51.8. Production remained robust at 58.3, supporting the overall expansion, while employment eased to 51.2. Persistent cost pressures (prices index steady at 71.1) and supply-chain strains (supplier deliveries at 59.3) continue to weigh on sentiment, amplified by tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East-related volatility. Traders appear to be balancing the sector’s resilience—fueled by AI-driven capital spending and tech investment—against signs of cooling demand and external risks. The wide dispersion in implied probabilities underscores how September data could shift meaningfully depending on incoming order trends, price developments, and any further geopolitical or policy impacts ahead of the October 1 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<50,0 37%
50,0 à 50,9 26%
51,0 à 51,9 26%
56,0 à 56,9 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
<50,0
23%
50,0 à 50,9
26%
51,0 à 51,9
26%
52,0 à 52,9
18%
53,0 à 53,9
24%
54,0 à 54,9
20%
55,0 à 55,9
20%
56,0 à 56,9
26%
57,0 à 57,9
18%
58,0+
24%
<50,0 37%
50,0 à 50,9 26%
51,0 à 51,9 26%
56,0 à 56,9 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 oct. 2026
<50,0
$3 Vol.
23%
50,0 à 50,9
$0 Vol.
26%
51,0 à 51,9
$0 Vol.
26%
52,0 à 52,9
$0 Vol.
18%
53,0 à 53,9
$0 Vol.
24%
54,0 à 54,9
$0 Vol.
20%
55,0 à 55,9
$0 Vol.
20%
56,0 à 56,9
$0 Vol.
26%
57,0 à 57,9
$0 Vol.
18%
58,0+
$0 Vol.
24%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**The closely matched probabilities across September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI outcome bins reflect elevated uncertainty following the August reading of 54.6 (down 1.0 point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus).** This marked the eighth straight month of expansion but showed clear moderation, with new orders falling 3.0 points to 53.7 and backlogs dropping 3.2 points to 51.8.
Production remained robust at 58.3, supporting the overall expansion, while employment eased to 51.2. Persistent cost pressures (prices index steady at 71.1) and supply-chain strains (supplier deliveries at 59.3) continue to weigh on sentiment, amplified by tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East-related volatility.
Traders appear to be balancing the sector’s resilience—fueled by AI-driven capital spending and tech investment—against signs of cooling demand and external risks. The wide dispersion in implied probabilities underscores how September data could shift meaningfully depending on incoming order trends, price developments, and any further geopolitical or policy impacts ahead of the October 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$3Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**The closely matched probabilities across September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI outcome bins reflect elevated uncertainty following the August reading of 54.6 (down 1.0 point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus).** This marked the eighth straight month of expansion but showed clear moderation, with new orders falling 3.0 points to 53.7 and backlogs dropping 3.2 points to 51.8.
Production remained robust at 58.3, supporting the overall expansion, while employment eased to 51.2. Persistent cost pressures (prices index steady at 71.1) and supply-chain strains (supplier deliveries at 59.3) continue to weigh on sentiment, amplified by tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East-related volatility.
Traders appear to be balancing the sector’s resilience—fueled by AI-driven capital spending and tech investment—against signs of cooling demand and external risks. The wide dispersion in implied probabilities underscores how September data could shift meaningfully depending on incoming order trends, price developments, and any further geopolitical or policy impacts ahead of the October 1 release.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**The closely matched probabilities across September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI outcome bins reflect elevated uncertainty following the August reading of 54.6 (down 1.0 point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus).** This marked the eighth straight month of expansion but showed clear moderation, with new orders falling 3.0 points to 53.7 and backlogs dropping 3.2 points to 51.8. Production remained robust at 58.3, supporting the overall expansion, while employment eased to 51.2. Persistent cost pressures (prices index steady at 71.1) and supply-chain strains (supplier deliveries at 59.3) continue to weigh on sentiment, amplified by tariffs on steel and aluminum plus Middle East-related volatility. Traders appear to be balancing the sector’s resilience—fueled by AI-driven capital spending and tech investment—against signs of cooling demand and external risks. The wide dispersion in implied probabilities underscores how September data could shift meaningfully depending on incoming order trends, price developments, and any further geopolitical or policy impacts ahead of the October 1 release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes