Recent July 2026 core CPI data, released at 2.5% year-over-year—the lowest in five months and matching consensus—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading near 2.4%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to around 2.38%, reflecting continued moderation in shelter costs and subdued goods prices amid easing tariff pass-through. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts, implied probabilities concentrate on 2.3-2.5% outcomes, consistent with the gradual disinflation trend observed since mid-2026. The September 11 release will provide the next key test, with risks tied to services reacceleration or any renewed supply pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2,4 % 37%
2,3 % 21%
2,5 % 19%
2,6 % 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
11 sept. 2026
≤2,0 %
6%
2,1 %
2%
2,2 %
7%
2,3 %
27%
2,4 %
37%
2,5 %
19%
2,6 %
8%
2,7 %
7%
2,8 %
6%
≥2,9 %
3%
2,4 % 37%
2,3 % 21%
2,5 % 19%
2,6 % 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
11 sept. 2026
≤2,0 %
$188 Vol.
6%
2,1 %
$164 Vol.
2%
2,2 %
$282 Vol.
7%
2,3 %
$186 Vol.
27%
2,4 %
$1,860 Vol.
37%
2,5 %
$133 Vol.
19%
2,6 %
$179 Vol.
8%
2,7 %
$217 Vol.
7%
2,8 %
$234 Vol.
6%
≥2,9 %
$146 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 core CPI data, released at 2.5% year-over-year—the lowest in five months and matching consensus—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading near 2.4%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to around 2.38%, reflecting continued moderation in shelter costs and subdued goods prices amid easing tariff pass-through. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts, implied probabilities concentrate on 2.3-2.5% outcomes, consistent with the gradual disinflation trend observed since mid-2026. The September 11 release will provide the next key test, with risks tied to services reacceleration or any renewed supply pressures.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ET
Volume
$3,589Date de fin
11 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 core CPI data, released at 2.5% year-over-year—the lowest in five months and matching consensus—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading near 2.4%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to around 2.38%, reflecting continued moderation in shelter costs and subdued goods prices amid easing tariff pass-through. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts, implied probabilities concentrate on 2.3-2.5% outcomes, consistent with the gradual disinflation trend observed since mid-2026. The September 11 release will provide the next key test, with risks tied to services reacceleration or any renewed supply pressures.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$3,589Date de fin
11 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 core CPI data, released at 2.5% year-over-year—the lowest in five months and matching consensus—has anchored trader expectations for the August reading near 2.4%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a further dip to around 2.38%, reflecting continued moderation in shelter costs and subdued goods prices amid easing tariff pass-through. With the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts, implied probabilities concentrate on 2.3-2.5% outcomes, consistent with the gradual disinflation trend observed since mid-2026. The September 11 release will provide the next key test, with risks tied to services reacceleration or any renewed supply pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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