Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have pushed UK CPI inflation to 2.8% in July 2026 after 2.6% in June, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting a rise to around 3.2% by Q4 2026 as higher global energy costs feed through to consumer prices. This near-term pickup, alongside NIESR and Treasury forecasts averaging near 3.1–3.4% for 2026, supports trader positioning around the 3.5–3.9% bucket at 27.4% implied probability while the closely matched 2.0–2.4% outcome at 24.6% reflects expectations that base effects, subdued wage growth, and the 3.75% Bank Rate will contain persistence. Market-implied odds price in these competing paths amid uncertainty over the duration of energy pass-through and any further MPC communications ahead of the December 2026 CPI release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourInflation annuelle au Royaume-Uni 2026
3,5–3,9 % 27.4%
2,0–2,4 % 24.6%
2,5–2,9 % 11.5%
1,5–1,9 % 8.5%
$91,186 Vol.
$91,186 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
3%
1,5–1,9 %
9%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5–2,9 %
11%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
27%
4,0-4,4 %
2%
4,5 % +
8%
3,5–3,9 % 27.4%
2,0–2,4 % 24.6%
2,5–2,9 % 11.5%
1,5–1,9 % 8.5%
$91,186 Vol.
$91,186 Vol.
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–1,4 %
3%
1,5–1,9 %
9%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5–2,9 %
11%
3,0–3,4 %
-
3,5–3,9 %
27%
4,0-4,4 %
2%
4,5 % +
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Résolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price shocks from Middle East tensions have pushed UK CPI inflation to 2.8% in July 2026 after 2.6% in June, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting a rise to around 3.2% by Q4 2026 as higher global energy costs feed through to consumer prices. This near-term pickup, alongside NIESR and Treasury forecasts averaging near 3.1–3.4% for 2026, supports trader positioning around the 3.5–3.9% bucket at 27.4% implied probability while the closely matched 2.0–2.4% outcome at 24.6% reflects expectations that base effects, subdued wage growth, and the 3.75% Bank Rate will contain persistence. Market-implied odds price in these competing paths amid uncertainty over the duration of energy pass-through and any further MPC communications ahead of the December 2026 CPI release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes