Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,1 % 30%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 15%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
5%
3,9 %
9%
4,0 %
15%
4,1 %
30%
4,2 %
26%
4,3 %
11%
4,4 %
5%
4,5 %
7%
≥ 4,6 %
4%
4,1 % 30%
4,2 % 26%
4,0 % 15%
4,3 % 11%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 oct. 2026
≤3,8 %
$585 Vol.
5%
3,9 %
$62 Vol.
9%
4,0 %
$62 Vol.
15%
4,1 %
$442 Vol.
30%
4,2 %
$84 Vol.
26%
4,3 %
$62 Vol.
11%
4,4 %
$176 Vol.
5%
4,5 %
$505 Vol.
7%
≥ 4,6 %
$505 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,484Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$2,484Date de fin
2 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent August employment data, showing a 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment rate amid rising labor force participation, anchors trader focus on the September reading due October 2. With implied probabilities tightly clustered between 4.1% (29.5%) and 4.2% (26.0%), markets reflect uncertainty over monthly volatility in household survey results, potential revisions, and influences from immigration policy on labor supply. Cooling wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and FOMC projections centering near 4.3% for Q4 2026 add context, while upcoming inflation data and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could shift rate expectations and hiring momentum. Aggregated trader positions price in these labor market dynamics without assuming a specific outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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