Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data—rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus while the year-over-year rate eased to 2.4%—has heightened uncertainty around the September print amid elevated energy prices and persistent services pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this dispersion, with 2.5% leading at 28.5% amid base effects and potential spillover from gasoline and shelter costs, while probabilities cluster around 2.3–2.6% outcomes. Traders price in the Fed’s September 16 FOMC decision and upcoming labor and inflation releases as key swing factors that could shift the trajectory before October resolution. The fragmented distribution underscores the difficulty of forecasting monthly volatility in a still-elevated inflation environment above the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2,5 % 22%
2,4 % 20%
2,6 % 16%
2,3 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤2,0 %
4%
2,1 %
8%
2,2 %
8%
2,3 %
16%
2,4 %
20%
2,5 %
22%
2,6 %
16%
2,7 %
8%
2,8 %
4%
≥2,9 %
11%
2,5 % 22%
2,4 % 20%
2,6 % 16%
2,3 % 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤2,0 %
$61 Vol.
4%
2,1 %
$61 Vol.
8%
2,2 %
$61 Vol.
8%
2,3 %
$61 Vol.
16%
2,4 %
$101 Vol.
20%
2,5 %
$74 Vol.
22%
2,6 %
$61 Vol.
16%
2,7 %
$81 Vol.
8%
2,8 %
$61 Vol.
4%
≥2,9 %
$96 Vol.
11%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data—rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus while the year-over-year rate eased to 2.4%—has heightened uncertainty around the September print amid elevated energy prices and persistent services pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this dispersion, with 2.5% leading at 28.5% amid base effects and potential spillover from gasoline and shelter costs, while probabilities cluster around 2.3–2.6% outcomes. Traders price in the Fed’s September 16 FOMC decision and upcoming labor and inflation releases as key swing factors that could shift the trajectory before October resolution. The fragmented distribution underscores the difficulty of forecasting monthly volatility in a still-elevated inflation environment above the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volume
$718Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data—rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus while the year-over-year rate eased to 2.4%—has heightened uncertainty around the September print amid elevated energy prices and persistent services pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this dispersion, with 2.5% leading at 28.5% amid base effects and potential spillover from gasoline and shelter costs, while probabilities cluster around 2.3–2.6% outcomes. Traders price in the Fed’s September 16 FOMC decision and upcoming labor and inflation releases as key swing factors that could shift the trajectory before October resolution. The fragmented distribution underscores the difficulty of forecasting monthly volatility in a still-elevated inflation environment above the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$718Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data—rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% consensus while the year-over-year rate eased to 2.4%—has heightened uncertainty around the September print amid elevated energy prices and persistent services pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this dispersion, with 2.5% leading at 28.5% amid base effects and potential spillover from gasoline and shelter costs, while probabilities cluster around 2.3–2.6% outcomes. Traders price in the Fed’s September 16 FOMC decision and upcoming labor and inflation releases as key swing factors that could shift the trajectory before October resolution. The fragmented distribution underscores the difficulty of forecasting monthly volatility in a still-elevated inflation environment above the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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