Recent July 2026 CPI inflation at 4.45% and June at 4.38%, combined with the RBI's revised FY2026-27 projection of 5.0%, underpin the 79.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome. Elevated food and energy prices from Middle East tensions, rupee depreciation, and adverse base effects have shifted the trajectory upward from earlier benign readings near 2%. The RBI maintains its repo rate at 5.25% while monitoring monsoon performance and global oil dynamics, with quarterly forecasts showing potential Q3 peaks near 5.9%. Trader consensus aligns with these verified data releases rather than lower-band scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4,50 % + 80%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.5%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 2.5%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
2%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
2%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
13%
4,50 % +
80%
4,50 % + 80%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.5%
3,00 % à 3,74 % 2.5%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
2%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
2%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
13%
4,50 % +
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI inflation at 4.45% and June at 4.38%, combined with the RBI's revised FY2026-27 projection of 5.0%, underpin the 79.5% market-implied odds on the 4.50%+ outcome. Elevated food and energy prices from Middle East tensions, rupee depreciation, and adverse base effects have shifted the trajectory upward from earlier benign readings near 2%. The RBI maintains its repo rate at 5.25% while monitoring monsoon performance and global oil dynamics, with quarterly forecasts showing potential Q3 peaks near 5.9%. Trader consensus aligns with these verified data releases rather than lower-band scenarios.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour



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